Introduction to the Global Sugar Market
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predict a 1.2% average annual increase in global sugar consumption over the next decade, driven by population growth and rising incomes.
Recent Sugar Production Trends
According to the USDA, global sugar production has shown a moderate recovery in the past two sugarcane and beet cycles, following adverse weather conditions that affected crops in previous years. In 2024/25, global production reached 181.0 million dry tons (mdt), marking a 0.4% annual increase after a 0.5% rise in the 2023/24 cycle.
For 2025/26, the global sugar production is projected to grow by 4.6%, with an estimated output of 189.3 mdt, the highest volume since the 2018/19 cycle.
This growth is expected to be backed by increased production in India and, to a lesser extent, Brazil. These two countries are projected to contribute nearly 18.6% and 23.5%, respectively, to the global supply.
India’s Sugar Production
In India, sugar production is expected to rise by 26% in 2025/26, reaching an estimated 35.25 mdt, driven by more favorable weather conditions associated with the southwest monsoon. This follows a 5.1% decrease in production in 2024/25 due to El Niño, water scarcity for irrigation, and lower saccharose content in sugarcane.
Global Sugar Consumption
In the past two sugarcane cycles, global sugar consumption has shown less dynamism compared to production. In 2023/24, consumption was recorded at 177.7 mdt, a marginal annual increase of 0.1%. For 2024/25, consumption dropped to 176.4 mdt, a 0.7% decrease from the previous cycle.
However, for 2025/26, global sugar demand is expected to grow by 1.3%, reaching a maximum of 178.7 mdt.
In 2024/25, consumption decreased due to lower demand in Brazil (-5.3%), the European Union (-3.0%), Indonesia (-4.2%), Mexico (-5.1%), and China (-0.8%). However, for 2025/26, consumption is projected to rebound, particularly in Indonesia (8.2%), India (1.9%), the European Union (3.1%), China (2.7%), and Mexico (6.2%). These countries are expected to increase consumption by 2.37 mdt, offsetting the projected reductions in Pakistan and the United States.
Future Projections
The OECD and FAO estimate that global sugar consumption will increase by 1.2% annually over the next decade, fueled by population growth and rising incomes.
In Asia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and China are expected to contribute to the overall increase in sugar consumption. In these countries, except for China, demographic growth and rising incomes are expected to support the demand for processed foods and beverages.
At the end of the 2024/25 sugarcane cycle, ending inventories were at 42.4 mdt, the lowest level since 2017/18. For the 2025/26 cycle, higher production and more moderate consumption could increase inventories by 5.1%.
Inventories are expected to reach 44.54 mdt, with the inventory-to-consumption ratio rising to 24.9%.
Export Trends and Prices
In the past decade, the average value of global sugar exports has been around 28 billion US dollars (mdd). Between 2015 and 2024, this value grew at an average annual rate of 5.9%, from 22,406 mdd to 37,462 mdd.
During the 2024/25 cycle, 63.4 mdt of sugar were traded internationally, representing 35% of the world’s sugar production.
The leading exporters were Brazil (55.0% of total volume), Thailand (9.2%), Australia and India (4.1% each), and the European Union (3.2%).
For the 2025/26 cycle, the USDA forecasts a 4.1% increase in exports, projecting 66.0 mdt. This is supported by higher shipments from India, Thailand, Brazil, and Australia. These countries are expected to contribute an additional 4.43 mdt to the international market, offsetting projected reductions in the European Union and Mexico.
Increased availability of sugar, due to higher production in major producing countries and increased exports from Brazil and Thailand, along with moderated consumption, pushed international prices downward during the 2024/25 cycle.
Moreover, the announcement of easing restrictions on sugar exports imposed by the Indian government since October 2023 also contributed to downward pressure on prices.
For the 2025/26 cycle, future sugar prices show a moderate decline compared to 2024/25 prices. However, they do not indicate an upward reversal and have slowed the downward trend since October.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected global sugar consumption growth? The OECD and FAO estimate a 1.2% average annual increase in global sugar consumption over the next decade.
- Which countries are expected to contribute to increased sugar consumption in Asia? India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and (except for China) are expected to drive the rise in sugar consumption in Asia.
- What factors are driving the increase in global sugar production? More favorable weather conditions, particularly in India, and increased production in Brazil are expected to boost global sugar output.
- How have international sugar prices been affected recently? Increased production and exports, along with moderated consumption, have pushed international sugar prices downward. The easing of export restrictions in India has also contributed to this downward pressure.
