Cuba’s Energy Crisis
In a quiet neighborhood of Havana, a Cuban mother prepares breakfast for her children in the early morning darkness. The country grapples with constant power outages, leaving residents without electricity for over twenty hours. On January 31st, Cuba experienced its largest blackout in history, plunging 63% of the nation into darkness simultaneously.
Mexico’s Generosity Amidst Crisis
As Cuba faces its worst energy crisis since the “Special Period” following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mexico maintains a peculiar generosity towards Havana. The Pemex director confirmed during a morning press conference that Cuba’s oil bill amounts to $1.4 billion since 2023. “Of course, they pay us!” exclaimed Víctor Rodríguez Padilla. However, the morenista arithmetic falters here.
With Nicolás Maduro’s capture, Cuba lost its primary crude supplier. Mexico stepped in to fill this void, becoming the largest exporter of oil to the island by 2025. Pemex announced it will drastically reduce exports starting in March as part of its strategy to process all crude domestically.
The Paradox of Preferential Treatment
The paradox is clear: if the goal is for every barrel of Mexican crude to remain within national borders, why does Cuba receive preferential treatment? The shipments to the island account for 3.3% of total exports, contrary to Sheinbaum’s claim that it’s “less than one percent.” These shipments surpass those to all of Central and South America combined.
Ideological Roots vs. Financial and Strategic Incongruence
Cuba’s oil diplomacy has ideological roots that transcend economic logic. For decades, this solidarity had a symbolic cost. Today, it has a financial cost and an unsustainable strategic incongruence.
Cuba is experiencing an economic collapse: its GDP contracted by 11% between 2020 and 2024. Nine of its sixteen thermoelectric plants are out of service. Ironically, the Mexican crude does not solve the problem. Cuban refineries are so outdated that they can only process light crude, precisely the Isthmian and Olmec blends of highest commercial value to Mexico. Former ambassador Ricardo Pascoe describes it bluntly: “It’s a lost cause.” Cuba lacks the real capacity for sustained repayment.
Mexico’s Unfulfilled Promises
Meanwhile, Mexican refineries fail to achieve the promised self-sufficiency. In December, the value of oil exports dropped by 61%. Pemex canceled contracts with clients paying market prices to honor commitments with an island deemed insignificant in official figures.
Solidarity vs. Financial Tension
The president insists, “Mexico is solidary.” However, solidarity cannot be built on accounting inconsistencies or justified when public finances face their own tensions. If the energy policy is that every barrel is for Mexicans, it should be without ideological exceptions.
The Real Issue: Infrastructure, Not Supply
Mexican oil does not illuminate Cuba’s homes. The island’s problem isn’t supply but destroyed infrastructure from six decades of centralized management. We continue exporting ideological solidarity disguised as trade, subsidizing a cause that neither Russia nor China can sustain.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Why is Mexico still exporting oil to Cuba amidst its energy crisis? A: Mexico maintains a longstanding ideological commitment to Cuba, providing oil despite the island’s economic collapse and its inability to repay.
- Q: How does Cuba’s outdated refinery infrastructure affect its ability to utilize Mexican crude? A: Cuba’s refineries can only process light crude, which is not the primary type Mexico exports. This results in a situation where Mexican oil exports to Cuba are essentially a lost cause.
- Q: What are the financial implications of Mexico’s continued oil exports to Cuba? A: Despite claims of insignificance, oil exports to Cuba account for a notable portion of Mexico’s total exports. Moreover, these exports are prioritized over market-paying clients, creating financial strain.
