Introduction
On February 4, I highlighted in this space that the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being 2026-2030, presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum and Finance Secretary Edgar Amador on the previous Tuesday, cannot fail due to the minimal fiscal margin. This means that the government has very little room for additional spending without incurring debt, raising taxes, or cutting other expenses.
Fiscal Context and Constraints
This is not an empty warning, as the Public Finance and Public Debt Report for the period January-December 2025, released by Hacienda on January 30, confirms this with hard data: the deficit was greater than promised, and there is no room for new commitments.
In 2025, the government promised a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP but ended up at 4.8%. This is not a minor deviation. Additionally, the financing cost increased by 9.8% in real terms, and Pemex returned to absorbing public resources. In December alone, 193 billion pesos were allocated to pay suppliers.
Investment Projections and Challenges
The government projects a total investment of 4.4% of GDP in 2026, equivalent to 1.672 trillion pesos. Of this total, 1.9% of GDP would bypass the budget and be executed through mixed schemes. This can help if done correctly, but the government must explain the basics: who provides the funds, who keeps the income if projects succeed, and who pays if they don’t. In numbers, this implies committing 720 billion pesos outside the budget, a figure that requires public rules and explicit accountability.
In 2025, public investment was drastically cut to try containing the deficit, causing a 28.4% real decline. This bought time but is incompatible with an expansion plan for infrastructure. If current spending and liabilities are not controlled, investment will once again become the adjustable variable, as it did last year.
Public debt rose to 53.6% of GDP in 2025 from 52.4% in 2024, not an alarming increase but a clear signal that there is no room for more mistakes. With such a narrow fiscal margin, every decision matters, and every spent peso must have an explicit and verifiable justification.
Conditions for Success
The Infrastructure Investment Plan can drive growth, but only under strict conditions: effective discipline and efficient spending, total transparency in mixed investment projects, a successful strategy to reduce Pemex’s pressure on the budget, and genuine efforts to combat corruption.
Key Questions and Answers
- Why is the fiscal margin so crucial? A minimal fiscal margin leaves little room for additional spending without incurring debt, raising taxes, or cutting other expenses.
- What are the investment projections? The government projects a total investment of 4.4% of GDP in 2026, equivalent to 1.672 trillion pesos.
- What challenges does the plan face? The plan must ensure disciplined and efficient spending, total transparency in mixed investment projects, a successful strategy to reduce Pemex’s pressure on the budget, and genuine efforts to combat corruption.
- What is the current fiscal context? The fiscal deficit in 2025 exceeded the promised amount, and there is no room for new commitments. Public debt also rose to 53.6% of GDP, signaling no room for more mistakes.
