Overview of Inflation Trends in Mexico
At the beginning of 2026, annual inflation in Mexico continued to signal “stability,” but some states displayed contrary price trends. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased by 3.77% annually during the first half of January 2026.
This result broke a two-quarter streak of deceleration but represented sustained inflation since the first half of July 2024, staying below 4%. This places it within the Banco de México (Banxico) target range of 3% ± 1 percentage point.
States with Inflation Above Banxico’s Target
Out of Mexico’s 32 federal entities, 12 states reported annual inflation above Banxico’s policy monetary target, indicating reduced purchasing power for families in these states compared to the rest of the nation.
- Quintana Roo: Had the highest inflation at 4.90% in January’s first half, maintaining this trend for two consecutive months.
- Oaxaca: Followed with 4.64% inflation.
- Campeche: Reported 4.43% inflation.
- Jalisco: Had 4.40% inflation.
- Ciudad de México: Showed 4.39% inflation.
- Nayarit: Reported 4.28% inflation.
- Aguascalientes: Had 4.20% inflation.
- San Luis Potosí: Showed 4.18% inflation.
- Estado de México: Had 4.16% inflation.
- Michoacán: Reported 4.11% inflation.
- Yucatán: Had 4.06% inflation.
- Tamaulipas: Showed 4.05% inflation.
San Luis Potosí and Oaxaca had the longest streaks of inflation above 4%, with 10 and 5 months, respectively.
States with Lowest Inflation
Tlaxcala (2.16%), Baja California (2.22%), and Baja California Sur (2.36%) had the lowest inflation rates, staying within Banxico’s target range.
Inflation Comparison with Previous Year
Compared to the same period last year, 14 states accelerated inflation. The largest increases were observed in Ciudad de México (1.19 percentage points from 3.30% to 4.39%), Oaxaca (0.94 percentage points from 3.70% to 4.64%), and Estado de México (0.80 percentage points from 3.36% to 4.16%).
Meanwhile, Baja California experienced the most significant reductions (-2.29 percentage points from 4.51% to 2.22%), Sinaloa (-1.27 percentage points from 3.81% to 2.54%), and Colima (-1.21 percentage points from 4.78% to 3.57%).
Cautious Outlook
Banco Base notes that Mexico’s overall inflation has remained below 4% since the first half of July 2024. However, caution is advised as this “stability” stems from low non-core inflation, while the core component—which determines long-term inflation trends—shows no clear signs of deceleration.
Additional risks could contribute to higher inflationary pressures in Mexico, including a 13% increase in the minimum wage, potential tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries without trade agreements, and additional service inflation during summer due to the FIFA World Cup.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current inflation rate in Mexico? The national inflation rate remains below 4%, but some states have surpassed Banxico’s target.
- Which states have the highest inflation rates? Quintana Roo leads with 4.90%, followed by Oaxaca (4.64%), Campeche (4.43%), Jalisco (4.40%), Ciudad de México (4.39%), Nayarit (4.28%), Aguascalientes (4.20%), San Luis Potosí (4.18%), Estado de México (4.16%), Michoacán (4.11%), Yucatán (4.06%), and Tamaulipas (4.05%).
- Which states have the lowest inflation rates? Tlaxcala (2.16%), Baja California (2.22%), and Baja California Sur (2.36%) have the lowest inflation rates.
- How do current inflation rates compare to last year? 14 states have experienced accelerated inflation, with Ciudad de México (1.19 percentage points), Oaxaca (0.94 percentage points), and Estado de México (0.80 percentage points) showing the largest increases. Baja California experienced the most significant reductions (-2.29 percentage points).
- What factors could contribute to higher inflationary pressures in Mexico? Potential contributors include a 13% increase in the minimum wage, tariffs on imports from non-trade agreement countries (up to 50%), and additional service inflation during the FIFA World Cup.
