Introduction to the Judicial Elections and Concerns
With less than a month until the Judicial elections, the Observatorio Electoral Judicial has raised concerns about possible criminal organization interference in this specific process. This warning comes after recent denunciations of candidate ties to criminal organizations.
Observatorio Electoral Judicial’s 12th Report: Risks of Violence in Judicial Elections
The Observatorio Electoral Judicial, comprising various organizations, published its 12th report analyzing and highlighting the risks of violence in judicial elections. Unlike previous politically-charged elections, these judicial elections lack political tension, making violence a concerning factor.
Mexico Evalúa’s Analysis: High-Risk Entities for Political Crime Violence
Mexico Evalúa, a member of the Observatorio Electoral Judicial, published an analysis identifying eight federal entities with high risks of political crime violence in upcoming judicial elections: Baja California, Chihuahua, Colima, Michoacán, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz.
These entities currently exhibit factors that fueled past election violence, allowing criminal organizations to interfere with electoral processes and outcomes, as well as judges across the country.
Vulnerability to Criminal Interference in Elections
The report assesses vulnerability to criminal interference based on institutional capabilities for investigating and acting against organized crime. Lower investigative capacities increase the state’s susceptibility to criminal interference in elections.
The report also measures the availability of targets for co-optation, which is linked to the number of positions being contested in 2025 relative to the total state judiciary. More contested positions in a state increase the likelihood of judge co-optation.
Alarming Situation Ahead of Concurrente Judicial and Political Elections
As concurrent judicial and political elections are expected in 2027 across the country, concerns grow due to weakened electoral and judicial authorities and the absence of preemptive mechanisms for addressing such cases.
The unusual behavior of electoral violence may stem from uncertainty, lack of information on candidates, and the absence or unawareness of denunciation mechanisms for violence cases.
Violent dynamics to influence candidate selection and success operate outside the law. More analysis is needed to identify these cases and prevent, as much as possible, political, economic, and criminal interests from capturing judges.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the concern regarding judicial elections? The Observatorio Electoral Judicial warns of possible criminal organization interference in the upcoming judicial elections.
- Which entities are considered high-risk for political crime violence? According to Mexico Evalúa, the high-risk entities are Baja California, Chihuahua, Colima, Michoacán, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz.
- How are these entities vulnerable to criminal interference? Vulnerability is assessed based on institutional capabilities for investigating and acting against organized crime. Lower capacities increase susceptibility to interference.
- What factors contribute to the unusual behavior of electoral violence? Uncertainty, lack of information on candidates, and the absence or unawareness of denunciation mechanisms for violence cases may be contributing factors.
