Introduction
The economic losses in Mexico due to natural disasters between 2000 and 2020 have been estimated at 596,000 million pesos, according to researcher Nashelli Ruiz Rivera from the Instituto Mora and coordinator of the Seminar Universitario de Riesgos Sociales y Ambientales at UNAM. However, this figure does not include unrecognized damages or long-term social losses.
Underreporting and Insufficient Data
Ruiz Rivera highlighted that national surveys lack the necessary resolution to capture the varying effects on each federal entity or municipality. This limitation prevents the creation of targeted public policies to reduce economic vulnerability in states frequently affected by disasters.
Moreover, she pointed out that legal criteria for declaring a “disaster” exclude events that, although not exceeding local response capacity, cause persistent damage. This implies that numerous impacts are not officially acknowledged but still chronically affect communities.
Housing Issues and Climate Change
Enrique Provencio Durazo, coordinator of the Programa Universitario de Estudios del Desarrollo at UNAM, warned that despite Mexico’s low economic growth in recent years, carbon emissions are rising, indicating structural regression.
He explained that while the average emission growth was 1% between 2002 and 2019, the projected increase between 2022 and 2024 is 2.6%, breaking the downward trend initiated in 2012.
Provencio also expressed concern over the drastic reduction in projected public investment by the Secretariat of Finance. He noted that federal programmable spending—which has real policy impact potential—will be lower as a percentage of GDP in 2024, and public investment will decrease by nearly one percentage point.
Furthermore, he criticized the current climate change budget for being “completely distorted,” as many programs unrelated to mitigation or adaptation are counted as climate spending with opaque methodologies and no traceability.
For instance, he mentioned the 50,000 million pesos allocated to the Secretariat of Defense without clear purpose and highlighted the precarization of the Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC), whose 2025 budget will be less than a third of its 2010 level.
Accelerated Warming in Mexico
Francisco Estrada Porrúa, head of the Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático (PINCC) at UNAM, reported that Mexico is experiencing a faster warming rate than the global average, with an increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial era to 2024, while the planet has seen an average rise of 1.2 degrees during the same period.
Estrada Porrúa, from the Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Cambio Climático, also pointed out the visible consequences of this phenomenon. For example, the estimated 24% decline in Veracruz coffee production by 2020 due to climate impact actually resulted in a loss of nearly 48%.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the economic losses due to natural disasters in Mexico? Between 2000 and 2020, the estimated material losses in Mexico due to natural disasters are 596,000 million pesos, although this figure does not include unrecognized damages or long-term social losses.
- Why is there a lack of transparency in climate change funds? Critics, like Enrique Provencio Durazo, claim that the current climate change budget is distorted due to opaque methodologies and a lack of traceability in many programs unrelated to mitigation or adaptation.
- How does Mexico’s warming rate compare to the global average? Mexico is experiencing a faster warming rate than the global average, with an increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial era to 2024, while the planet has seen an average rise of 1.2 degrees during the same period.
- What are the consequences of accelerated warming in Mexico? Accelerated warming has already led to visible consequences, such as a near-doubling of the actual loss in Veracruz coffee production compared to the estimated 24% decline by 2020.
