Background on Saidé Salazar and Her Relevance
Saidé Salazar, an analyst at BBVA Research, has been closely monitoring Mexico’s economic trends. Her expertise and insights are crucial in understanding the current state of Mexico’s private consumption. As a representative from one of the leading financial institutions in Mexico, her opinions carry significant weight and influence among investors, policymakers, and the general public.
Key Developments in Private Consumption
Overall Decline in Private Consumption
Private consumption in Mexico experienced a 0.7% decline in April compared to March, according to the BBVA Research’s Consumer Big Data Indicator. This decrease was primarily driven by a 1.3% drop in spending on goods, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment amidst economic uncertainty.
Uncertainty Factors
Salazar attributes the slowdown in private consumption to two main factors: a weakening national economy and recent changes in the United States’ trade policy. Moreover, real wage growth in Mexico has been decelerating, with the IMSS reporting a mere 3.6% annual growth in April—the lowest since mid-2021.
Segment-wise Analysis
Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed resilience:
– Food spending remained stagnant (0.0% monthly).
– Health product spending increased by 1.6%, accumulating an annual growth of 11.5%.
– Entertainment spending recovered, rising by 2.5%, along with other services that grew by 2.6% month-over-month.
E-commerce Recovery
The online shopping sector rebounded in April, with a 10.9% monthly growth and reaching levels similar to December 2024. Online consumption now accounts for 15.3% of total spending, up from 12.3 percentage points since before the pandemic in January 2020.
Physical Retail and Gasoline Consumption
In contrast, physical retail spending decreased by 1.1% in April, while gasoline consumption—an indicator of mobility—fell for the third consecutive month (-3.6% monthly) with a negative annual variation of 2.6%.
Future Outlook
Salazar’s Predictions for Private Consumption
Saidé Salazar anticipates that private consumption may continue to show signs of moderation in the coming months due to uncertainty surrounding the implementation and duration of new U.S. tariffs. Factors such as delayed consumer decisions, job market impacts from reduced manufacturing output, and external demand exposure in the manufacturing sector contribute to this outlook.
Company Responses to Trade Policy Changes
Some companies have already announced suspensions of activities or delays in shipments to the U.S. until they gain more clarity on the new trade regime.
- Q: Who is Saidé Salazar and why is she relevant? A: Saidé Salazar is an analyst at BBVA Research, whose insights and expertise are crucial in understanding Mexico’s economic trends. Her opinions carry significant weight among investors, policymakers, and the general public.
- Q: What factors contributed to the decline in private consumption? A: The decline was primarily due to a cautious consumer sentiment amidst economic uncertainty, weakening national economy, and recent changes in the U.S. trade policy.
- Q: Which sectors showed resilience in April? A: The health product sector saw an annual growth of 11.5%, while entertainment and other services experienced monthly growth of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
- Q: How has the e-commerce sector performed? A: The online shopping sector rebounded in April, with a 10.9% monthly growth and reaching levels similar to December 2024. Online consumption now accounts for 15.3% of total spending.
- Q: What does the decrease in gasoline consumption indicate? A: The 3.6% monthly decline in gasoline consumption, coupled with a negative annual variation of 2.6%, suggests reduced mobility among consumers.
- Q: What does Salazar predict for private consumption in the coming months? A: Salazar anticipates that private consumption may continue to show signs of moderation due to uncertainty surrounding new U.S. tariffs and their impact on the job market and manufacturing sector.
