Mexican Exports Rise 5.8% in April Amidst Uncertainty Over US Tariffs
Mexico’s product exports grew by 5.8% in April compared to the same period last year, reaching $54,295.7 million, partly driven by increased demand due to uncertainty over US tariffs, according to Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Meanwhile, imports fell by 1.2%, totaling $54,383.8 million, resulting in a trade deficit of $88.1 million.
Experts’ Analysis
Luis Adrián Muñiz, an analyst at Vector, suggests that the impact of US tariffs on Mexican trade has not been fully observed yet. He anticipates that the decline in imports could signal lower exports in May.
The trade balance also indicates a slowdown in consumption, fixed investment, and industrial production on the supply side. The export growth is attributed to a 6.6% increase in non-oil exports and a 13.2% decrease in oil exports.
Export Breakdown
- Non-oil exports rose by 6.6%, while oil exports fell by 13.2%.
- Exports to the US increased by 5.7%, while those to the rest of the world grew by 11.7%.
Gabriela Siller and Jesús Anacarsis López, analysts at Banco Base, emphasize that the growth is due to higher demand for Mexican products amid uncertainty over US trade policy.
Context of Tariff Uncertainty
In April, the Trump administration announced “reciprocal” tariffs for the rest of the world and escalated its trade war with China, causing nervousness about unpredictable US measures towards its main trading partners.
Manufactured product exports totaled $49,015 million in April, marking a 6.6% annual growth.
- Notable increases were observed in machinery and specialized equipment for various industries (62.5%), household metal products (18.8%), professional and scientific equipment (18.5%), electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (6.4%), and minerometalurgical products (2.5%).
- Automotive product exports decreased by 7.1%, with sales to the US falling 8.0% and those to other markets declining by 1.3%.
Oil Export Performance
In April 2025, oil exports were valued at $1,833 million, comprising $1,265 million from crude oil sales and $568 million from other petroleum product exports.
- The average export price for Mexican crude oil was $60.82 per barrel, down $4.97 from the previous month and $16.06 less than April 2024.
- Daily crude oil export volume was 693,000 barrels, lower than March’s 811,000 barrels and similar to April 2024’s 698,000 barrels.
Impact on Imports and Investment
Banco Base analysts note that the sluggish growth in consumer goods and capital imports reflects weak domestic consumption and the peso’s 19.31% depreciation against the US dollar from April 2024 to April 2025, along with investment uncertainty in Mexico.
This contrasts with the acceleration in intermediate goods imports and aligns with the anticipated growth in manufactured goods exports.
