Economic Tension and Changing Negotiation Landscape
The 2026 collective bargaining cycle unfolds in a high-tension environment, marked by an unusual combination of economic, legal, and political factors that reshape the relationship between companies and workers, warns Oscar de la Vega, a partner at D&M Abogados.
According to the labor law specialist, the convergence between moderate official inflation statistics and persistent consumer price increases for essential goods has widened the gap between workers’ salary expectations and companies’ financial planning.
“Companies budget based on general inflation, but workers negotiate based on the daily price increases they experience at the supermarket,” explains de la Vega.
The latest data from INEGI shows that general inflation closed 2025 at 3.69%, which has served as a benchmark for salary increases. However, de la Vega emphasizes that this figure is insufficient to contain labor discontent, as the prices of food, transportation, and essential services have risen above this level, squeezing workers’ real income.
Structural Changes in Collective Bargaining
This economic tension is compounded by a structural change in the collective bargaining model, as reforms in workers’ democracy, collective agreements, and their revisions must be legitimized through the personal, free, direct, and secret vote of workers. This has significantly increased the risk of rejecting agreements.
“Decision-making power has shifted directly to the working base. Today, it’s not enough for the union and the company to reach an agreement; that agreement must convince workers of real benefits,” says de la Vega, the D&M Abogados partner.
Questioning the MIR Figure
In labor unions of all tendencies, there is significant questioning of the existence of the Monto Independiente de Recuperación (MIR) figure, which is used to set salary increases for minimum wages. This affects workers’ salary recovery with collective contracts.
Alejandro Avilés, a lawyer for STUNAM and a member of the workers’ sector in Conasami, states that “the MIR was created to gradually recover the purchasing power of the minimum wage lost for decades; however, it should be definitively eliminated by 2026. The mechanism has already fulfilled its purpose, and maintaining it would only artificially prolong an instrument that also generates distortions in collective bargaining.”
International Environment Adds Caution
De la Vega points out that uncertainty surrounding a potential renegotiation of the T-MEC has caused a pause in some private investment decisions, particularly in export sectors and regional supply chains. “This caution translates into a smaller margin for aggressive salary commitments,” he indicates.
Anticipated Labor Conflicts in 2026
The combination of restrictive corporate budgets and workers with greater decision-making power anticipates increased labor unrest in 2026. De la Vega predicts that there could be more strike notices and prolonged contract review processes, especially in industries with large workforces and rigid salary structures.
Exploring Broader Solutions
“Faced with this scenario, negotiating tables are obliged to explore more comprehensive solutions than direct percentage adjustments to salaries. We’re seeing schemes that incorporate bonuses, income support, improved benefits, or staggered revisions as a way to address the pressure of living costs without compromising companies’ financial viability,” explains de la Vega.
