Introduction
The rapid retaliatory tariffs between the United States and China have boosted Brazil’s agricultural sector while affecting American farmers. As Beijing seeks various products from the largest economy in Latin America, including soybeans and beef, Brazil has emerged as a significant beneficiary in the ongoing trade war initiated by President Donald Trump.
Brazil’s Agricultural Gains
Brazil has expanded its lead as the primary supplier of food to China, surpassing the United States. Before tariffs escalated, Brazilian exports to China had already surged, positioning the country to capitalize further on the trade dispute.
- Beef Exports: Brazilian beef sales to China increased by one-third in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, according to local trade associations.
- Poultry Imports: Chinese imports of Brazilian poultry rose by 19% year-on-year in March, as reported by local trade groups.
- Soybean Premium: The global market saw Brazilian soybeans trading at a premium of $1.15 over U.S. soybeans, up from a discount of $0.25 in January.
Ishan Bhanu, the leading agricultural analyst at Kpler, stated that these developments are beneficial for Brazilian and Argentine farmers. Rodrigo Alvim, international director of the Brazilian group Minas Port, noted that China is swiftly securing supply not only of soybeans but also other basic products, which will result in reduced demand for U.S. grains.
Decline in U.S. Agricultural Exports to China
The U.S. agricultural shipments to China plummeted by 54% in January compared to the previous year. Traditionally, China purchased 90% of U.S. sorghum exports and about half of U.S. soybean exports.
Moreover, China blocked a significant portion of U.S. beef exports to the country last month by not renewing registrations that allowed hundreds of U.S. meat processing facilities to export to China. Many Chinese grain mills had already halted U.S. imports due to tariffs that eroded their profit margins, according to a person familiar with the sector.
Brazil’s Favorable Position
Aurélio Pavinato, CEO of SLC Agrícola—one of Brazil’s largest cereal producers—stated that Brazil is well-positioned to take advantage of this shift. With China diversifying its suppliers and Europe increasingly considering Brazil as a stable option, foreign demand for Brazilian products is rising.
Between 2016 and 2023, the U.S. share of China’s food imports fell from 20.7% to 13.5%, while Brazil’s share grew from 17.2% to 25.2% during the same period.
Many Chinese grain mills have stopped importing from the U.S. due to tariffs that have squeezed their profit margins.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Who is benefiting from the trade war between China and the U.S.? A: Brazil’s agricultural sector is significantly benefiting from the trade dispute, with increased exports of beef and soybeans to China.
- Q: How has the U.S. been affected by this trade war? A: The U.S. has experienced a decline in agricultural exports to China, including sorghum and soybeans. Additionally, Chinese import restrictions on U.S. beef have further impacted American farmers.
- Q: Why is Brazil well-positioned to capitalize on this situation? A: Brazil is seen as a stable and reliable supplier by China and Europe, leading to increased foreign demand for Brazilian agricultural products.
- Q: How have tariffs influenced the grain and soybean markets? A: Tariffs have caused Chinese grain mills to halt U.S. imports, driving up the price of Brazilian soybeans in global markets.
