Overview of Business Confidence Decline in 2025
The business confidence index closed 2025 with a decrease of 3.5 points, indicating lower optimism in the “Appropriate time to invest” component, marking its second consecutive year of deterioration, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Although the decrease was less than in 2024, when the Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) fell by 4.0 points compared to 2023, the result confirms a weakened business perception over the past two years.
Sector-wise Declines in Business Confidence
All sectors that make up the business confidence index experienced declines. Commerce led the drops with 4.1 points, followed by Construction and Private Non-Financial Services with 3.7 points each, while Manufacturing Industries retreated by 2.3 points.
Monthly Indicators and Trends
The Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) ended December 2025 at 48.5 points, seasonally adjusted, representing a slight increase of 0.1 points from the previous month.
Despite this advance, the indicator remained below the 50-point threshold for ten consecutive months, remaining pessimistic for most of the year.
In December, the Business Confidence Index (ICE) for the Construction sector was the only one to show a monthly decline, falling to 45.0 points after a decrease of 1.0 point from November, accumulating 16 months below the 50-point mark.
The “Appropriate time to invest” component was the most lagging, decreasing by 2.3 points.
Meanwhile, the ICE for Manufacturing Industries was at 48.9 points, with a monthly increase of 0.2 points, though it remained pessimistic for ten consecutive months. The monthly increase was due to improvements in all five components, notably the future economic situation of the country and companies.
For the Commerce sector, the ICE increased by 0.2 points in December to reach 47.9 points, continuing ten months of pessimism. The component related to whether it’s the “Appropriate time to invest” saw the largest advance (+1.4 points).
The Private Non-Financial Services ICE showed a slight monthly advance of 0.1 points, reaching 49.2 points. With this result, the indicator stayed below the 50-point threshold for the third consecutive month.
Key Components of Business Confidence
Business confidence was observed in components related to the “Future economic situation of the country” and “Present economic situation of the company,” with monthly advances of 1.6 and 1.3 points, respectively.
About the Indicators
The IGOEC and ICE are derived from the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE). These indicators reflect the view of sector executives—Manufacturing Industries, Construction, Commerce, and Private Non-Financial Services—on the economic situation of their country and companies.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue discussed in this article? The article discusses the decline in business confidence for the second consecutive year, with lower optimism for investing.
- Which sectors experienced the most significant drops in business confidence? The Commerce sector led with a 4.1-point decline, followed by Construction and Private Non-Financial Services with 3.7 points each, while Manufacturing Industries retreated by 2.3 points.
- How did the IGOEC perform in December 2025 compared to November? The IGOEC slightly increased by 0.1 points in December 2025, reaching 48.5 points.
- Why is the 50-point threshold significant in these indicators? The 50-point threshold represents the boundary between pessimistic and optimistic views on the economy. Being below this threshold indicates a generally pessimistic outlook.
