Economic Growth Overview
The National Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia released the first-quarter 2025 GDP growth figures. The Colombian economy saw a 2.7% annual increase, surpassing the 2.3% growth in Q4 2024. The retail and agriculture sectors were the primary drivers of this growth, with 3.9% and 7.1% increases, respectively.
Key Sector Contributions
- Retail: Contributed 0.8 percentage points (pps) to the final GDP figure, with a 3.9% increase.
- Agriculture: Contributed 0.7 pps, with a 7.1% increase over the past year.
- Arts, Entertainment, and Household Activities: Contributed 0.6 pps, with a 15.5% increase.
Historical Context and Comparison
The first-quarter 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.7% matches the highest figure since 2023, when the first quarter of that year saw a 2.7% growth rate. This marks six consecutive quarters of growth since the fourth quarter of the mentioned year, with an initial interannual growth rate of 0.2%.
Economic Value and Comparison
As of March 2025, Colombia’s economy was valued at $442.4 trillion, reflecting a $41.5 trillion increase when compared to the same period in 2024. The PIB figure for Q4 2024 was higher than the first-quarter 2025 total of $461.6 trillion.
Expert Commentary
César Pabón, head of economic research at Corficolombiana, described the 2.7% growth as a positive start to the year despite local and global uncertainties. He noted that investment remains the most affected sector.
Analyst Expectations
Economists anticipated a GDP growth rate below 3% for Q1 2025. Fedesarrollo projected the highest growth at 2.9%, followed by Corficolombiana, Banco de Bogotá, and Anif at 2.8%. Bancolombia and Scotiabank forecasted 2.7%, while Itaú predicted the lowest growth of 2.3%.
Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía (ISE) Performance
The ISE closed at 4.5% in Q1 2025, the highest figure recorded this year. This marks nine consecutive months of positive growth.
- Agriculture: Contributed 1.69 pps, with a 12-month increase of 16.3%.
- Arts, Entertainment, and Household Activities: Contributed 1.0 pps, with a 14.7% increase.
Sector-Specific Concerns
Luis Fernando Mejía, Fedesarrollo’s director, acknowledged the positive 2.7% growth but expressed concern over mining and oil sectors, which experienced a 5% annual decline. He highlighted contractions in energy, gas, and water sectors.
Mejía forecasted a 2.6% growth rate for Colombia in 2025, with lower interest rates expected.
Key Questions and Answers
- What was the overall GDP growth rate for Colombia in Q1 2025? The GDP growth rate was 2.7%.
- Which sectors were the main contributors to this growth? Retail, agriculture, and arts, entertainment, and household activities were the primary contributors.
- How does the Q1 2025 growth compare to previous years? The 2.7% growth rate matches the highest figure since 2023.
- What are the concerns regarding specific sectors in Colombia’s economy? Mining and oil sectors have experienced a 5% annual decline, with contractions in energy, gas, and water sectors.
