Overview of the Global Trade Scenario
The volume of global goods trade increased by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a rise in North American imports anticipating tariff growth in the United States, as reported by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday.
Intertrimestral Growth and WTO Projections
On an intertrimestral basis, the indicator saw a 3.6% increase. This growth in Q1 goods trade volume exceeded the WTO’s most recent forecast but economists predict that the expansion pace will slow later in the year as full supply and tariff increases weigh on import demand.
Anticipation of US Tariffs
New tariffs announced by the United States on April 2, at the start of Q2, were widely expected. This allowed importers to expedite their purchases to avoid higher tariffs later.
The Q1 trade volume growth surpassed the projections published in the WTO’s Perspectives and Statistics of World Trade report on April 16, both for the base Secretariat forecast of 2.7% for 2025 and the adjusted forecast of -0.2%, considering policies as of April 16.
Since then, various trade agreements and measures have slightly altered the adjusted forecast. However, by mid-June, it was expected that global merchandise trade growth for the year would remain virtually unchanged at 0.1%.
Value of Global Goods Trade
The value of global goods trade, measured by untrimmed exports, increased by 4% year-on-year in Q1 2025. This reflects strong volume growth and a decrease in prices. Although the value of trade decreased compared to the previous quarter due to seasonal variations, untrimmed figures continued to rise.
Regional Disparities in Trade Growth
The WTO highlighted significant disparities among regions in Q1 2025 goods trade volume growth, particularly in the import sector.
- North America led with the largest intertrimestral import growth (13.4%), followed by Africa (5.1%), South America, Central America, and the Caribbean (3.6%), Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%).
- The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including some associated and former members, was the only region to report a decrease (-0.5%) in Q1.
Export Growth by Region
Middle East registered the highest intertrimestral export growth (6.3%), followed by Asia (5.6%), South America (3.2%), Africa (2.5%), Europe (1.9%), and North America (1.8%).
The CIS region also reported a decrease in exports (-1.0%) in Q1.
Product Category Performance
By product category in Q1, office equipment and telecommunications showed the best performance (+16% interannual), followed by chemicals (+12%) and clothing (+7%).
Among the product categories, only automobiles (-4%), fuels and mining products (-4%; of which fuels -7%), and iron and steel (-3%) decreased in value.
While fuel prices varied little compared to the same quarter last year, prices of metals and minerals (excluding gold and silver) increased by 8%.
Import Trends
Significant annual increases in imports were observed in North America (+19%) and South America (+12%).
In North America, machinery, precious metals, and pharmaceutical imports saw notable increases, while vehicle imports slightly decreased. Meanwhile, South America imported heavily in machinery, iron and steel items, and vehicles, while fuel imports declined.
