Introduction
Mexico’s avocado exports are projected to reach a historic high of $4 billion in 2025, according to projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Historical Context and Current Status
In 2024, Mexican avocado exports already achieved a record-breaking $3.787 billion, marking a 20.1% increase from 2023. However, in volume terms, exports fell by 9% to 1.28 million metric tons due to rising logistical costs and fluctuations in harvest.
Key Markets
The United States remains the primary destination for Mexican avocado exports, accounting for over 80% of total volume. Canada and Japan follow with 7% and 3%, respectively.
Future Projections
The USDA forecasts a 5.6% increase in Mexican avocado exports by volume to 1.34 million metric tons in 2025, driven by growing international demand, especially from the US.
Despite the volume increase, Mexico is not a significant importer of avocados. Peru and Colombia supply the domestic market during low-production seasons. The USDA predicts a decrease in imports to 3,800 metric tons in 2025 from an estimated 4,200 metric tons in 2024 due to stable production growth and moderate consumption growth.
Production Outlook
The USDA projects Mexican avocado production to reach 2.75 million metric tons in 2025, a 3% increase from the estimated 2.67 million metric tons in 2024, thanks to favorable growing conditions, improved agricultural practices, and strong export demand.
Planting area is expected to remain relatively unchanged at 256,500 hectares in 2025, according to reports from producers about limited new plantings due to stricter land-use regulations and a new deforestation-free certification program in the state of Michoacán.
According to Mexico’s Agroalimentary and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), the planting area for avocados in 2024 was 256,200 hectares, a 1% decrease from 2023.
Over the past five years, avocado production has significantly increased, particularly in the Jalisco region. Producers have diversified their crop combinations to include avocados or replaced maize, wheat, and pastureland with avocado orchards. Domestic consumption of avocados in Mexico has risen, and consumers now have greater access to the fruit.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the projected export values for Mexican avocados in 2025? The USDA projects Mexican avocado exports to reach a record-breaking $4 billion in 2025.
- Which countries are the primary destinations for Mexican avocado exports? The United States accounts for more than 80% of Mexican avocado exports, followed by Canada and Japan.
- How have Mexican avocado exports performed in recent years? In 2024, Mexican avocado exports reached a historic high of $3.787 billion, with a 20.1% increase from 2023 in value terms. However, volume exports fell by 9% to 1.28 million metric tons.
- What is the expected production and planting area for Mexican avocados in 2025? The USDA projects Mexican avocado production to reach 2.75 million metric tons in 2025, with a planting area of approximately 256,500 hectares.
- Is Mexico a significant importer of avocados? No, Mexico is not a major importer of avocados. Peru and Colombia supply the domestic market during low-production seasons.
