Introduction
Mexico’s avocado exports are projected to reach a record-breaking $4 billion in 2025, according to projections released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Historical Context and Current Status
In 2024, Mexico’s outbound shipments of avocados reached a historic high of $3.787 billion, marking a 20.1% increase from 2023.
The USDA forecasts that in volume terms, Mexican avocado exports will amount to 1.34 million metric tons in 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase to meet the growing international demand, primarily from the United States.
In 2024, estimated exports were 1.28 million metric tons, a 9% decrease from 2023 due to rising logistical costs and harvest fluctuations. The exports to the US reached 1.07 million metric tons in 2024, a 5% drop from the previous year.
Key Markets
The US market accounts for over 80% of Mexico’s total avocado export volume. Canada (7%) and Japan (3%) follow as the next largest markets.
Although avocado exports occur year-round, the peak season is from December to February, accounting for more than 35% of total exports.
The Super Bowl significantly drives demand for Mexican avocado exports to the US. In 2024, Mexico supplied approximately 88% of total avocado imports in the US.
The USDA notes that export markets generally prefer Hass avocados over other varieties due to their taste, texture, and durability.
In 2024, avocados ranked third among Mexico’s agricultural exports, following beer and tequila, and preceding berries and tomatoes.
Conversely, Mexico is not a significant importer of avocados; imports mainly come from Peru and Colombia to meet domestic demand during low-production seasons.
According to the USDA, imports are expected to reach 3,800 metric tons in 2025, a decrease from the estimated 4,200 metric tons in 2024 due to stable production growth and relatively moderate consumption growth.
In line with rising domestic production, imports have decreased since hitting a historical high of 5,550 metric tons in 2022. Water and other input shortages limited production in dedicated growing areas, resulting in increased imports.
Production Outlook
The USDA projects that Mexico’s avocado production will reach 2.75 million metric tons in 2025, a 3% increase from the estimated 2.67 million metric tons for 2024, thanks to favorable growing conditions, improved agricultural practices, and strong export demand.
Sowing area is expected to remain nearly unchanged in 2025 at 256,500 hectares, according to producer reports on limited new plantings due to stricter land-use regulations and a new deforestation-free certification program in the state of Michoacán.
According to Mexico’s Agroalimentary and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), the sowing area for avocados in 2024 was 256,200 hectares, a 1% decrease from 2023.
Over the past five years, avocado production has significantly increased, particularly in the Jalisco Valley region. Producers have diversified their crop combinations to include avocados or replaced corn, wheat, and pastureland with avocado orchards. Domestic consumption of avocados in Mexico has grown, and consumers now have better access to the fruit.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the projected export values for Mexican avocados in 2025? The USDA projects that Mexican avocado exports will reach a record-breaking $4 billion in 2025.
- Which markets are the primary destinations for Mexican avocado exports? The US market accounts for over 80% of Mexico’s total avocado export volume, followed by Canada (7%) and Japan (3%).
- What factors contributed to the decrease in Mexican avocado exports in 2024? The decrease was primarily due to rising logistical costs and harvest fluctuations.
- What is the expected growth in Mexican avocado production by 2025? The USDA projects a 3% increase in Mexican avocado production, reaching 2.75 million metric tons in 2025.
- How have Mexican avocado imports changed in recent years? Imports have decreased due to rising domestic production, which was limited by water and other input shortages in 2022.
