Overview of the Mexican Economy’s Performance in December 2025
The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) has reported that the Mexican economy began 2026 without clear traction, according to its advanced indicators for manufacturing and services sectors.
Manufacturing Sector Performance
The manufacturing sector continued to operate in contraction territory, albeit with a marginal improvement. However, this improvement was insufficient to reverse the downward cycle. Consequently, there remains a lack of solid foundations for sustained recovery.
- The IMEF Manufacturing Index increased from 45.8 to 46.2 points in December, a rise of 0.4 units compared to November.
- The index has been in contraction for 21 consecutive months, with the trend-cycle series advancing to 46.3 points, indicating a less intense deceleration but no clear signs of cycle change.
- The size-adjusted sub-index fell by 0.7 points to 46.5, deepening the heterogeneity among different productive segments.
The IMEF Index ranges from 0 to 100 points, with the 50-point threshold separating economic expansion (above 50) from contraction (below 50).
Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance
The non-manufacturing sector, as indicated by the IMEF Non-Manufacturing Index, also showed signs of weakness and loss of traction in December.
- The IMEF Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 50.3 to 49.5 points, moving out of the expansion zone and back into contraction.
- The trend-cycle series remained unchanged at 50.0 points, marking a pause in the recovery observed in previous months.
- The size-adjusted measurement decreased slightly by 0.3 points but remained in expansion territory at 50.9 points.
Understanding the IMEF Indicators
The IMEF Index is a diffusion index that assesses the economic environment based on a survey of five qualitative questions. It aims to predict the direction of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities in Mexico, and infer the possible short-term economic evolution based on the expected development of these sectors.
- Interpretation: When the index is above the 50-point threshold, an increase indicates a faster future expansion. When it’s below, an increase suggests a slower future contraction.
- Limitations: The indicator does not provide specific information about the magnitude of expected changes.
Key Questions and Answers
- What does the IMEF report indicate about the Mexican economy’s performance in early 2026? The report suggests that the Mexican economy began 2026 without clear traction, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showing signs of weakness and loss of momentum.
- How does the IMEF Index measure economic performance? The IMEF Index is a diffusion index based on a survey of five qualitative questions, assessing the economic environment and predicting the direction of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities in Mexico.
- What do the index values signify? An index value above 50 points indicates economic expansion, while a value below 50 points suggests contraction. The closer the index is to 50, the more uncertain the economic outlook.
