October Sees 0.3% Growth, but November Contracts 0.1%
According to the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI), Mexico’s private consumption for families in 2025 is expected to start and end on a cautious note. The INEGI’s Advanced Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) shows a modest 0.3% monthly growth in October, followed by a slight 0.1% contraction in November, despite the Buen Fin shopping event.
Annual Growth Reflects Favorable Bases
The annual growth rates are 3.2% for October and 2.6% for November, but these figures reflect favorable bases of comparison since the last quarter of 2024 experienced consumption contraction amidst cautiousness triggered by the federal government transition.
IOCP vs. IMCP: A Closer Look
The IOCP offers an early economic estimation of the Monthly Private Consumption Index (IMCP). While the IMCP is published nine weeks after the reference month, the IOCP provides an initial estimation in two weeks and a more accurate one in six weeks. The IMCP for October will be released on January 15, 2025.
Q3 Results and PIB Contribution
The Q3 results for Offer and Demand Aggregates will be available on December 19, revealing private consumption’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the period. Original IMCP data through September shows a declining consumption dynamic, with an accumulated interannual variation of 0.0%, contrasting the 3.6% advance observed in the first nine months of 2024.
Comparison with Fixed Capital Formation
Despite the cautious consumption, the IOCP has fared better compared to the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (investment), which contracted 7.6% in the first three quarters of 2025, contrasting with the 5.9% increase seen from January to September 2024.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the INEGI’s Advanced Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)? The IOCP is an early economic estimation of the Monthly Private Consumption Index (IMCP), published by Mexico’s National Institute of Geography and Statistics.
- What do the October and November growth rates indicate? The 0.3% monthly growth in October and the 0.1% contraction in November suggest a cautious end to private consumption for Mexican families in 2025.
- When will the IMCP for October be released? The IMCP for October will be published on January 15, 2025.
- What do Q3 results for Offer and Demand Aggregates reveal? These results will show private consumption’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the period.
- How does private consumption compare to fixed capital formation in 2025? While private consumption has shown a modest decline, fixed capital formation contracted 7.6% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to a 5.9% increase in the same period of 2024.
