Background on Key Players and Context
In April 2025, amidst unprecedented unilateral tariff changes by volume affected globally, Mexico’s exports to the United States fell by 2.7% year-over-year, totaling $41,689 million, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday.
Simultaneously, U.S. imports from Mexico decreased by 5.2% to $27,846 million.
Mexico’s Dominant Position in US Trade
Despite these declines, Mexico maintained its leading position in product trade with the United States. In April, Mexico was the largest exporter to the U.S., the primary destination for U.S. external sales, and thus the top trading partner of that nation.
Moreover, Mexico solidified its position as the leading external supplier to the U.S. market. China’s exports fell 19.7%, and Canada’s dropped by 14.4%. Mexico surpassed Canada as the top destination for U.S. exports for the second time this year.
Positive Trade Balance for Mexico
In this context, Mexico achieved a surplus in its product trade balance with the U.S. in April, amounting to $14,023 million—a 2.8% increase compared to April 2024 amidst protectionist measures and retaliatory actions by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Conversely, Canada’s surplus with the U.S. decreased by 39.0% (-$2,258 million), and China’s positive balance dropped by 14.3% (-$17,185 million).
Mexico’s Market Share and Global Trade Dynamics
Cumulatively, Mexico accounted for 14.7% of the U.S.’s total trade during the first four months of 2025, surpassing Canada (13.1%) and China (8.7%).
However, Mexico’s share in U.S. total imports decreased from 15.9% in April 2024 to 15.1% in April 2025, indicating that U.S. external purchases were more dynamic with the rest of the world.
Globally, U.S. imports grew by 1.9% year-over-year in April, reaching $276,086 million. Similarly, U.S. exports increased by 10.2% to $188,593 million, contrasting with Mexican exports (-5.2%) and Canadian exports (-11.4%).
Tariff Changes and Their Impact
In April, President Trump authorized a global minimum tariff of 10% and higher tariffs (up to 50%) for specific countries. He also raised the rate on products from China from 34% to 84% starting April 9 and further increased it to 125% the next day.
Trump also announced a 90-day suspension of country-specific tariffs (excluding China), maintaining the rate at 10% for most countries.
On May 12, the White House announced a 90-day tariff reduction agreement with China, and Trump reduced the tariff rate to China from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days on May 14.
