Mexico Sees New Tariffs as a Potential Window for Nearshoring Growth

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August 6, 2025

a flag of mexico and a stock chart with a flag of mexico in the background of the flag of mexico, Ed

Despite US Tariff Threats, Mexico Remains Top Trade Partner with Growth Opportunities

Recent US tariffs on key products like steel, aluminum, and automobiles have reignited concerns in bilateral trade with Mexico. However, beyond political tensions, the current scenario might be creating a strategic opportunity for Mexico’s economy.

Minimal Immediate Impact of Tariffs on Mexican Exports to the US

According to Banco BASE’s latest analysis, “Tariffs, Exports, and the Possibility of a New Nearshoring Opportunity for Mexico,” the immediate impact of these new tariffs is less than anticipated, reframing the focus from a threat to an opportunity.

As per their report, 83.9% of Mexican exports to the US continue tariff-free, and the average effective tariff rate is only 4.34%. This data reinforces Mexican products’ competitiveness compared to other markets.

However, sectors like automotive have started feeling the effects, with a 4.04% contraction in the first half of 2025, potentially altering investment flows in the short and medium term.

Mexico: The US’s Top Trade Partner

US imports from Mexico grew by 12,912 million dollars between January and May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Today, Mexico represents 14.63% of total US imports, solidifying its position as the primary supplier.

Regarding tariffs, Mexico ranks 22nd among the 35 countries with the highest volume of imports to the US, indicating a moderate tariff burden compared to key competitors.

Investment Opportunities

Despite the current protectionist policy of the US, demand aggregate data in the first quarter showed that exports fueled growth in Mexico’s GDP. The present scenario presents a fertile ground for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).

While the automotive industry might experience a slowdown, more dynamic and less tariff-exposed sectors could attract new capital, driving a second wave of nearshoring focused on industries distinct from those in the initial phase.

Computing Industry: A Real Nearshoring Opportunity

The protectionist policy also presents opportunities in the computing sector, particularly in part 8471 (automatic machines for data processing or treatment), where Mexico leads with a 38.9% share of total US imports.

Between 2017 and 2025, total US imports in this category grew by 85.54%, while Mexican imports increased by 166.57%. This translates to a significant rise in part 8471’s participation in Mexico’s exports to the US, rising from 5.78% in 2017 to 14.17% in 2025.

This could accelerate FDI growth in this sector over the coming years. Moreover, computer components might start being manufactured in Mexico instead of imported, further boosting this investment.

Actions to Take

  • Logistics infrastructure: enabling efficiency in time and costs.
  • Legal certainty: supporting long-term decisions.
  • Macroeconomic stability, especially in labor and fiscal matters.

Mexico’s geographical advantage, sharing a border with the US, allows for reduced delivery times and more resilient and agile supply chains.

For Companies: Keys to Navigating the Environment

In a changing global environment, proactivity is crucial. Companies trading internationally should: monitor currency exchange rate volatility and its effects on prices and margins, anticipate risks through currency hedging to protect against abrupt fluctuations, and optimize their international payment processes, seeking efficiency, speed, and competitive costs.

In this context, having expert advice in international trade and financial management becomes a competitive advantage.

The US’s tightening trade policies hasn’t halted Mexico’s dynamic relationship but rather redefined the rules of the game. If deeper integrations are achieved in key production chains—like computing—and agreements reducing tariff burdens on sensitive sectors like automotive are reached, Mexico could open a new growth cycle in exports and FDI attraction.

The comprehensive analysis by Banco BASE, including economic projections, detailed figures per sector, and strategic recommendations for export companies, is now available for free download here.