Overview of the Projection by Consejo Mexicano de Comercio Exterior, Inversión y Tecnología (COMCE)
The Consejo Mexicano de Comercio Exterior, Inversión y Tecnología (COMCE) anticipates that Mexico will increase its exports to the United States by leveraging its tariff advantage over other supplying countries. According to COMCE’s projections, based on data from Yale Budget Lab, Mexico’s share in US imports will rise from 16.4% to 19% between 2025 and 2028.
Comparison with Other Suppliers
- Canada’s market share is expected to grow from 13% to 17%
- China’s share will decrease from 14% to 8%
- The rest of the world’s share will fall from 58% to 56%
Despite this growth, Mexico’s expansion rate will be slower compared to Canada’s.
Mexico’s Strategic Position in US Trade
Sergio Contreras, COMCE’s CEO, highlighted Mexico’s strategic and resilient position in its trade with the United States, even amidst high tariff levels not seen in over 90 years.
- Mexico currently has the lowest tariff rate among the top three exporters to the US, according to Yale Budget Lab data up to August 6, 2025.
- US customs impose a 10.6% tariff on Mexico, lower than Canada’s 13.1% and China’s 27.9%.
- The global average tariff rate is 15.6%
Contreras pointed out that Canada has experienced the most damage from US tariffs, with a long-term economic contraction of 2.5%. China’s impact will be a decrease of 0.2%, while Mexico’s economy is projected to benefit by 0.09 percentage points due to its position in the regional production chain and preferences under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC).
Only the United Kingdom, with a projected economic growth of 0.2% due to tariffs and its trade agreement with the US, has a better percentage.
T-MEC Review and Mexico’s Advantages
Contreras mentioned that by 2026, Mexico will approach T-MEC renegotiation with three key advantages: being the essential supplier for the US industrial and manufacturing system, the top market for the US’s main agricultural exports, and holding a strategic position to negotiate on equal terms with the US.
“We have figures that demonstrate the US economy and industry’s need for Mexico to succeed in global markets. No other country shares these strengths; it’s time to acknowledge and capitalize on them in a peer review,” said Contreras.
Contreras emphasized that although there are risks due to the volatile US trade policy, Mexico and Mexican companies must strengthen market diversification, optimize value chains, and strictly adhere to origin rules and international standards to fully utilize the T-MEC framework.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is COMCE’s projection for Mexico’s export growth to the US? Mexico’s share in US imports is expected to rise from 16.4% to 19% between 2025 and 2028.
- How do Mexico’s tariffs compare to other suppliers? Mexico has the lowest effective tariff rate (10.6%) among the top three exporters to the US, lower than Canada’s (13.1%) and China’s (27.9%).
- What are the projected changes in market shares for other suppliers? Canada’s share will grow from 13% to 17%; China’s will decrease from 14% to 8%; and the rest of the world’s share will fall from 58% to 56%.
- What advantages does Mexico hold in the US market under the T-MEC? Mexico is a crucial supplier for the US industrial and manufacturing system, the primary market for US agricultural exports, and holds a strategic position to negotiate on equal terms with the US.
