Background and Relevance
Mexico’s automotive exports have shown a growing reliance on the U.S. market, with the percentage of total shipments destined for the United States rising from 80.1% in the first four months of 2018 to 87.0% by the same period in 2025, according to data from Banco de México.
Over the past few administrations, Mexican governments have attempted to diversify export markets to reduce dependence on the United States, the largest importer of goods in general and automobiles specifically.
Export Trends and Arrival of Tariffs
From January to April of each year, Mexico’s outbound automotive sales increased from $44,909.9 million in 2018 to $58,924.7 million in 2025.
Mexico reached its highest historical level in automotive exports to destinations other than the U.S. during the first four months of 2023, totaling $9,077.5 million.
In context: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on certain car imports starting April 3, 2025, and specific auto part imports starting May 3, 2025.
In the first four months of 2025, Mexican automotive exports to the U.S. decreased by an annual rate of 3.9%, while those directed to other markets fell by 10.2%.
Production Adjustments and Analyst Perspectives
Despite the weak trend in external sales, analysts note that Mexico will gain market share in U.S. auto imports with the approximate reduction of the 25% tariff to 15%, according to Gabriela Siller, director of Economic-Financial Analysis at Banco Base.
Mexico’s advantages include lower logistical costs, stable delivery times, and closely integrated supply chains with the U.S., as argued by Siller.
Alejandro Rodríguez, an analyst from the U.S.-based consultancy Plante Moran, predicts that Mexico’s automotive exports to the U.S. will continue growing in upcoming years, albeit at a slower pace.
Tariff Reduction and Future Prospects
According to Mexico’s Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, the U.S. reduced the average approximate tariff on cars originating from Mexico to 15%, contingent on meeting the T-MEC rules of origin for each model.
If these conditions are not met, imports will face a 25% tariff.
Rodríguez believes that stricter T-MEC rules of origin and increased U.S. tariffs will drive more automotive production in all three North American countries.
This tightening may also push for greater concentration of Mexican automotive industry exports in the U.S. market.
The automotive trade is expected to be a prominent aspect of the T-MEC review scheduled for July 2026.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue discussed in this article? The increasing dependence of Mexico’s automotive exports on the U.S. market.
- What actions have Mexican governments taken to diversify export markets? They have attempted to reduce dependence on the U.S., the largest importer of goods, by diversifying export markets.
- What tariffs were imposed by the U.S. on Mexican car imports? A 25% tariff was imposed on certain car imports starting April 3, 2025.
- How will Mexico’s market share in U.S. auto imports change with tariff reduction? Mexico is expected to gain market share as the tariff reduces from 25% to approximately 15%, according to analysts.
- What factors give Mexico an advantage in the automotive industry? Lower logistical costs, stable delivery times, and closely integrated supply chains with the U.S.
- What impact will stricter T-MEC rules of origin and increased U.S. tariffs have on automotive production? These factors are expected to drive more automotive production in Mexico, the U.S., and Canada.
