Mexico’s Export Growth to US Slows as Market Share Falls

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August 5, 2025

Export Growth and Declining Market Share in US

Mexico reported a 6.3% interannual increase in its product exports to the United States, reaching $264.383 billion in the first half of 2025, according to the Census Bureau.

However, this growth resulted in a decrease in Mexico’s share of total US imports, falling from 15.9% in the first half of 2024 to 15% in the same period of 2025.

Context: The Trade Environment under President Donald Trump

This period largely overlaps with the second term of US President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20, 2017. Trump’s trade policies have brought structural changes to global commerce through his tariff initiatives.

  • Trump imposed a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper imports.
  • He also imposed a 25% tariff on automobile and certain auto parts imports.
  • Additionally, he implemented reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries, with a base rate of 10% for most nations and special rates (currently under negotiation with exceptions) for China (10%), Mexico (25%), and Canada (35%).

Under this framework, Mexico imported US products worth $168.170 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 1.1% annual growth.

Consequently, Mexico’s trade surplus with the US grew 16.7% to $96.212 billion.

Key Data Points

  • Mexico’s surplus neared China’s level with the US and approached surpassing Canada as the top destination for US exports.
  • China’s trade surplus with the US fell 12.4% to $111.468 billion.
  • US exports to Canada decreased 2.9% to $171.987 billion.
  • Despite tariffs, both US exports and imports grew in the first half of 2025.

Global external US purchases increased 12.7% to $1,766,217 billion, while US exports rose 5.0% to $1,076,529 billion.

Mexico’s Position as Top US Trading Partner

In the same period, Mexico remained the top trading partner of the US, accounting for 15.2% of total trade, followed by Canada (13.0%) and China (7.9%).

  • Canada experienced declines in both exports to and imports from the US: its exports fell 3.3% to $198,224 billion, and its imports decreased 2.9% to $171,987 billion.
  • China also saw double-digit declines: its exports to the US dropped 15.6% to $167,479 billion, and its imports contracted 21.1% to $56,011 billion.

Key Questions and Answers

  • Q: What is the main topic of this article? A: The article discusses Mexico’s export growth to the US and its declining market share in US imports.
  • Q: Who is Donald Trump and why is he relevant? A: Donald Trump is the President of the United States since 2017. His trade policies have significantly impacted global commerce, including Mexico’s trade with the US.
  • Q: How have Trump’s tariffs affected Mexico’s trade with the US? A: Despite the tariffs, Mexico’s exports to the US grew 6.3%, while its imports from the US increased 1.1%. However, Mexico’s market share in US imports fell from 15.9% to 15%.
  • Q: How does Mexico’s trade performance compare to other countries like Canada and China? A: Mexico’s surplus neared China’s level with the US and approached surpassing Canada as the top destination for US exports. Both Canada and China experienced declines in their trade with the US.