Background on Mexico’s Dependence on U.S. Natural Gas
Mexico’s demand for U.S. natural gas has been on the rise since 2011, with the exception of 2022. This trend coincides with a consistent decline in domestic production, led by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Natural gas is considered a “transition fuel,” situated between dirtier fossil fuels like coal, gasoline, and diesel, and cleaner energy sources with minimal greenhouse gas emissions.
Import Figures and Trends
In the first quarter of 2025, Mexico’s natural gas imports reached a new historical maximum of 6,261 million cubic feet per day (mmpcd), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This growth rate is lower than the 8.8% increase observed in the same period of 2024.
Over full years, Mexico’s purchases have grown annually since 2011, except for 2022. In 2024, U.S.-imported gas met a record-high 74.6% of Mexico’s national demand, averaging 8,700 mmpcd. This represents a nearly 35 percentage point increase from the 39.7% coverage in 2014.
The electricity sector consumed a record-high 67.2% of the national demand, totaling nearly 5,850 mmpcd. In 2014, electricity plants consumed 48.5% of the total.
Impact on Pemex Production
The increase in imports reflects the decline in Pemex’s production. From January to May 2025, domestic output fell 6.3% year-over-year to 3,534 mmpcd, continuing its second consecutive year of decline due to natural pozo depletion and difficulties in well completion.
During the same period last year, production dropped 8.9% to 3,773 mmpcd amidst natural pozo depletion challenges. The average production observed in May is 15% below the 2025 target of 4,163 mmpcd set by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration in November 2024.
The administration’s “National Strategy for the Hydrocarbons and Natural Gas Sector” projects an expected production recovery path, aiming to surpass 4,700 mmpcd by 2027.
Global Market Diversification
Mexico remains the leading importer of U.S. natural gas, though the U.S. has improved its market diversification in the first quarter of 2025. Mexico received 26.3% of total U.S. exports—mainly via pipeline—which is lower than the 28.7% observed in the first four months of 2024.
Among the top 10 importers, European countries showed notable dynamics, receiving U.S. natural gas in liquid form (LNG) via tanker ships. Notable purchases include:
- France: 1,974 mmpcd (+34.8%)
- United Kingdom: 1,501 mmpcd (+84.6%)
- Turkey: 1,323 mmpcd (+111%)
- Spain: 1,301 mmpcd (+84.9%)
- Italy: 872 mmpcd (+72.9%)
- Poland: 744 mmpcd (+276%)
Canada, the second-largest U.S. market, saw a 5.9% decrease to 3,094 mmpcd.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the significance of Mexico’s increasing reliance on U.S. natural gas? Mexico’s growing dependence on U.S. natural gas reflects the decline in domestic production, led by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Natural gas is considered a “transition fuel” between dirtier fossil fuels and cleaner energy sources.
- Why is the growth rate of Mexico’s natural gas imports lower in 2025 compared to 2024? The growth rate is lower in 2025 due to various factors, including natural pozo depletion and difficulties in well completion.
- How has Pemex’s production performed in 2025? Pemex’s production has declined 6.3% year-over-year in the first five months of 2025, continuing its second consecutive year of decline.
- Which countries are notable for their increasing imports of U.S. natural gas? European countries like France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Spain, Italy, and Poland have shown notable dynamics in their increasing imports of U.S. natural gas.
