Overview of the Situation
Following a surprising rise in October, Mexico’s private consumption is expected to close 2025 cautiously, according to the INEGI’s advance estimate for November and December. The Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) forecasts a modest monthly growth of 0.1% for both months.
Annual Comparison and Forecasted Variations
The variable has benefited from a weak annual comparison, as private consumption fell 1.6% during the second half of 2024. Consequently, the INEGI predicts annual variations of 3.6% for November and 4.9% for December.
Significant Desceleration but Resilience
From January to October 2025, private consumption has shown a substantial slowdown, growing by only 0.4%. In contrast, the same period in 2024 saw a growth rate of 3.3%.
- Factors Slowing Down Consumption: Uncertainty surrounding the shift in U.S. trade policy and the implementation of domestic reforms (judicial, energy, regulatory) have contributed to a slower market labor environment and diminished consumer confidence.
- Counterbalancing Factors: The continuous recovery of real wages and an upward trend in government transfers through social programs have helped maintain positive consumption levels.
Comparison with Investment
Unlike private consumption, investment has been contracting. By October 2025, fixed investment had accumulated a 7.4% decline.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the INEGI? The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is Mexico’s official statistics agency, responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating statistical data.
- What is the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP)? The IOCP is an early estimate of the Indicador Mensual del Consumo Privado (IMCP), providing a forecast of private consumption growth two weeks after the reference month and a more precise estimate six weeks later.
- Why is private consumption slowing down? The slowdown in private consumption can be attributed to factors such as uncertainty around U.S. trade policy shifts, implementation of domestic reforms, and their impact on the business environment.
- What keeps consumption positive despite the slowdown? The continuous recovery of real wages and an increase in government transfers through social programs have helped maintain positive consumption levels.
