Overview and Background
Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company, has been gradually increasing its crude processing and refined products output. However, the progress is slower than initially anticipated, and the company still falls short of its strategic goals set for 2030.
Crude Processing
From January to November 2025, Pemex’s crude processing in the National Refining System (SNR) has grown by 9.9% to an average of nearly one million barrels per day (bd), the highest level in a decade. This is an improvement from 2016 when it was at 948,000 bd. However, the current upward trend contrasts with the downward trend observed a decade ago.
The Olmeca refinery, which will complete its first full year of operation in 2025, has contributed 126,000 bd to crude processing. The remaining six SNR complexes (Madero, Cadereyta, Tula, Salamanca, Tula, and Minatitlán) have contributed 872,000 bd, which is 2% less than the January-November 2024 figures.
Despite these improvements, Pemex’s SNR crude processing for 2025 (excluding the Deer Park refinery in Texas) remains below the targets set by its own Strategic Plan 2025-2035. The plan aims for an average crude processing of 1,500,000 bd by the end of 2025. However, as of November, the SNR is 5% below this projection.
Refined Products Production
In terms of distillate production within the SNR (excluding Deer Park), the volume increased by 21.6% year-over-year to 606,000 bd, the highest amount for the first eleven months of the year since 2015. In 2015, the trend was downward with 702,000 bd.
Breaking down the production figures for 2025, gasoline production rose by 20.6% to 348,000 bd; diesel increased by 21.4% to 216,000 bd; and aviation turbine fuel (turbosina) saw a 31.5% increase to 43,000 bd.
The Olmeca refinery contributed 95,000 bd to the distillate production, a 342.4% increase compared to 2024. The remaining SNR complexes contributed 511,000 bd, a 7.1% increase. Nevertheless, these 606,000 bd of domestically produced combustibles are still 11.6% below the 686,000 bd projected in Pemex’s Strategic Plan 2025-2035.
The strategic plan outlines a production target for 2025: 415,000 bd of gasoline, 226,000 bd of diesel, and 45,000 bd of aviation turbine fuel. Comparing the November production with the López Obrador administration’s promises, the gap is even larger. In July 2024, it was promised that by the first quarter of 2025, the SNR (excluding Deer Park) would produce one million 500,000 bd of gasoline, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel—73% more than the current output.
November: A Turning Point?
Throughout 2025, Pemex’s refining narrative has been marked by the push from Dos Bocas. However, its commissioning has faced various incidents, some related to electricity supply due to technical issues with switches.
It wasn’t until November that the Olmeca refinery surpassed processing more than 200,000 bd of crude (59% of its 340,000 bd capacity), a target the current administration, led by Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, had hoped to achieve since April 2024.
Eighteen months after its inauguration (operations began in June 2024), the complex experienced two months without processing any crude barrels (October 2024 and January 2025) and only surpassed an average load of 100,000 bd in March 2025.
In November, not only did the Olmeca refinery show increased activity, but also Tula, Cadereyta, and Salina Cruz refineries experienced processing increases of 101%, 42.9%, and 75.8%, respectively.
Thanks to these improvements and the progress at Dos Bocas, crude processing in the SNR (excluding Deer Park) rose by 52% to 1,144,000 bd in November, the best November since 2015 when it reached 157,000 bd. The Strategic Plan 2025-2035 envisions a processing target for the SNR of one million 254,000 bd by 2026, with a target of 1.3 million bd by the end of the six-year term.
