Overview of Recent Trends in Private Consumption
Following a strong surge in April 2025, private consumption in Mexico experienced a slowdown in May and June, according to the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) released by the Instituto Nacional de Geografía y Estadística (INEGI).
Monthly Comparisons and Growth
- May saw a 0.3% contraction in private consumption, as per the IOCP report.
- In June, there was a marginal growth of 0.1%.
These monthly changes translate to annual growth rates of 0.6% in May and 0.9% in June, indicating a three-month period of slightly positive comparisons year-over-year following the declines from December to March.
Context and Relevance
The IOCP is an experimental statistic provided by INEGI, offering an early economic estimation of the monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP). While the IMCP is typically released approximately nine weeks after the reference month, the IOCP provides an initial estimate just two weeks following the end of the reference month, albeit with a larger statistical margin of error.
Private consumption has shown a fluctuating and generally weak trajectory up to April, with an overall 0.9% decline. This contrasts sharply with the 5.3% growth observed during the first four months of 2024.
- In the six months leading up to May, private consumption experienced three increases and three decreases in monthly comparisons.
These developments occur amidst signs of economic deceleration in Mexico and mixed signals from consumption drivers.
Current Economic Factors
While the formal labor market signals a sluggish pace, real wages continue to grow. Although remittance shipments have slowed, peso depreciation during the first quarter has helped offset this effect.
Despite a systematic deterioration in consumer confidence, credit to consumption has maintained double-digit growth rates.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP)? It is an experimental statistic provided by Mexico’s INEGI, offering an early economic estimation of the monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP).
- How does the IOCP differ from the IMCP? The IMCP is typically released nine weeks after the reference month, whereas the IOCP provides an initial estimate just two weeks following the end of the reference month, albeit with a larger statistical margin of error.
- What are the recent trends in private consumption? Private consumption experienced a 0.3% contraction in May and a marginal 0.1% growth in June, following three months of slightly positive annual comparisons.
- What factors are influencing private consumption in Mexico? Despite a sluggish formal labor market and systematic deterioration in consumer confidence, real wages continue to grow. Double-digit growth rates have been maintained in credit to consumption, partly due to peso depreciation offsetting the slowdown in remittance shipments.
