Background on Argentina’s Economic Situation
Argentina, a South American nation with a complex economic history, is facing another challenging month in September. The country’s government, led by President Alberto Fernández, is preparing for the release of the August inflation data by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) on September 10. This comes amidst the provincial elections in Buenos Aires and ongoing efforts to combat high inflation rates.
July’s Economic Turbulence
The previous month, July, saw significant volatility in the Argentine peso’s value against the US dollar. The Argentine government had assured citizens that the impact of the currency’s recent fluctuations on local prices would be minimal. However, private estimates suggest that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation rate is likely to rebound, potentially surpassing the 2% mark – a level it has consistently stayed below for the past three months.
Market Analysts’ Projections
According to the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM), the median projection among analysts increased by 0.4% compared to the previous report, estimating an inflation rate of 2.1% for August. This suggests a potential setback for the government in its mission to curb inflation, which has been a persistent issue in Argentina.
Divergent Consultancy Forecasts
Some consulting firms predict that the inflation rate might be lower than in July, although this remains uncertain until the official data is released on September 10.
C&T Consultancy’s GBA Region Analysis
One such consultancy, C&T, recently published its monthly price survey for the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) region. The report indicates a 1.6% monthly increase in August, down from July’s 1.9%. This translates to an annual inflation rate of 32.5% in GBA, the lowest since July 2018.
EcoGo Consultancy’s Projection
Another consultancy, EcoGo, led by Marina Dal Poggetto, forecasts a 2% monthly price increase, accumulating to an annual inflation rate of 19.9% so far in 2021.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the significance of the upcoming inflation data release? The release of August’s inflation data by INDEC will provide insights into the effectiveness of the Argentine government’s measures to control inflation, which has been a long-standing economic challenge.
- Why is the 2% inflation threshold important? The government aims to keep the inflation rate below 2% to stabilize the economy and maintain purchasing power for Argentine citizens.
- What do the recent consultancy forecasts suggest? While some consultancies predict a lower inflation rate than in July, others anticipate a rebound, indicating uncertainty surrounding the actual figure until the official data is published.
- How have prices changed in the GBA region? According to C&T consultancy, the GBA region experienced a 1.6% monthly price increase in August, leading to an annual inflation rate of 32.5%, the lowest since July 2018.
