Introduction to the Economic Forecast by Bank of America for Mexico
Bank of America predicts a 1.2% growth for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, describing it as a “moderate recovery” from the stagnation experienced in 2025.
Key Figures and Context
- Economist in Charge: Carlos Capistrán, Bank of America’s Chief Economist for Mexico, Latin America, and Canada
- 2025 Economic Performance: Mexico’s economy advanced by 0.4%, which is practically stagnant and represents an economic standstill.
- 2026 GDP Growth Forecast: 1.2%, indicating a moderate recovery.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
During a remote press conference, Capistrán presented Bank of America’s economic outlook for Mexico. He acknowledged that the risks to their growth projection are on the upside, linked to a better performance by the United States and the positive impact of the economic spillover from the 13 soccer games of the Copa de Futbol.
Capistrán highlighted that the BofA economists’ team raised their US growth expectation to 2.8%, “nearly 3%”, which implies more dynamic Mexican exports and an improvement in the labor sector. This, in turn, will positively affect remittances directed to Mexico.
Addressing Mexico’s Chronic Low Growth
Capistrán took the positive step by Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who convened a group of economists to identify reasons for the country’s low economic growth, as a positive signal.
Using an analogy, Capistrán explained that instead of focusing on a single tree’s poor growth in a year, it is essential to “look at the entire forest,” as Mexico’s chronic low growth is a long-standing issue.
Productivity Crisis: Capistrán emphasized that Mexico faces a productivity crisis, particularly in labor factors. Over the past decade, there has been an accumulated decline of 8%.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Bank of America’s GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2026? Bank of America anticipates a 1.2% growth for Mexico’s GDP in 2026.
- What does Bank of America describe this growth as? A “moderate recovery” from the stagnation experienced in 2025.
- What factors influence Bank of America’s growth projection for Mexico? The risks to their growth projection are on the upside, linked to a better performance by the United States and the positive impact of the economic spillover from the Copa de Futbol.
- What does Mexico’s chronic low growth issue entail? Mexico faces a productivity crisis, with an accumulated decline of 8% in labor factors over the past decade.
