Analysts’ Consensus Continues to Cut Mexico’s Growth Projection for 2025
For the sixth consecutive time, analysts have reduced their growth projection for Mexico in 2025 from 0.2% to 0.1%, according to the latest Citi Expectations Survey.
The range of growth projected by the experts consulted in the most recent edition of the survey for the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is from -0.8% to 0.7%.
In contrast, for 2026, the experts maintained their projection that the economy will grow by 1.5%.
The reduction in growth expectations for 2025 comes despite Mexico’s economy avoiding a recession, achieving preliminary growth of 0.2% on a quarterly basis in January-March 2025.
Anticipated Interest Rate Cut
Moreover, experts anticipate that the Banco de México’s governing board will cut the reference rate by 50 basis points (leaving it at 8.50%) in their upcoming monetary policy decision, to be announced on May 15th.
Of the 34 participants in the survey, 33 expect a 50 basis point cut, while another anticipates a 25 basis point reduction.
“The median forecast for the policy rate by the end of 2025 remains at 7.75%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 8.25%. For the end of 2026, the median expectation continues at 7.00%, just like in the previous survey,” explained Citi México.
Regarding inflation, the consensus projects that the general inflation in April will be at 0.31% on a monthly basis and the underlying inflation at 0.48%. On an annual basis, they predict that general inflation will be located at 3.91%, which implies a slight increase from March’s 3.80%.
For May, the consensus expects general inflation to be at 0.09% and underlying inflation at 0.23%
On Thursday, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will release the April inflation data.
For the end of 2025 and 2026, inflation projections remain stable: at 3.80% for both years.
Finally, expectations regarding the Mexican peso have been reduced for the end of 2025, as the consensus projects that the US dollar will close this year at 20.80, lower than the previous 20.93 pesos.
“For the end of 2026, it is now projected at 21.23 (pesos per dollar), three cents less than in the previous survey,” Citi concluded.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the latest growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 according to Citi’s Expectations Survey?
- Q: How do the 2025 and 2026 growth projections compare?
- Q: What is the anticipated interest rate cut by Banco de México?
- Q: What are the projected inflation rates for April and May 2025?
- Q: What are the stable inflation projections for 2025 and 2026?
- Q: How has the peso projection changed for the end of 2025?
A: The forecast has been lowered to 0.1% from the previously anticipated 0.2%.
A: For 2025, the growth projection is now at 0.1%, while for 2026 it remains at 1.5%.
A: Experts predict a 50 basis points reduction, placing the reference rate at 8.50%.
A: General inflation is expected to be 0.31% in April and 0.09% in May on a monthly basis. Underlying inflation is projected at 0.48% in April and 0.23% in May.
A: The projected inflation rates are 3.80% for both years.
A: The consensus now projects the US dollar to close the year at 20.80, down from the previous projection of 20.93 pesos per dollar.
