Background on the Mexican Economy and Banxico
The Bank of Mexico, or Banxico, is the central bank of Mexico responsible for implementing monetary policy to ensure price stability and support sustainable economic growth. Regularly conducting surveys among private sector experts, Banxico gathers insights into the economic outlook and helps shape policy decisions.
Adjusted GDP Growth Forecast
According to the latest Banxico survey, private sector experts have revised their growth projection for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 to 0.20%. This represents an upward adjustment from the previous forecast of 0.13%, marking three consecutive monthly increases since May’s projection of 0.08%.
Increased Inflation Expectations
Alongside the revised GDP growth forecast, experts also raised their inflation expectations to 4.11%. This is the highest projection since September 2024, following four consecutive months of increases. For 2026, experts anticipate an inflation rate of 3.75%, similar to the previous month’s projection.
Key Economic Factors Affecting Growth
The survey highlights several factors that could hinder economic growth, with public insecurity cited by 18% of respondents, trade policy concerns including the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) mentioned by 16%, and weak domestic market conditions noted by 10% of experts.
Pessimistic Business Environment Perception
The survey also captures the current perception of economic conditions among experts. In July’s opinion poll, 98% of respondents believe that the economy is no better than it was a year ago, up from 95% in the previous month. Furthermore, 33% anticipate worsening business conditions, while 50% expect them to remain unchanged.
- Question: What percentage of experts believe the economy has improved over the past year?
- Answer: Only 2% of experts believe the economy has improved over the past year.
- Question: How many consecutive months have experts increased their GDP growth forecast?
- Answer: Experts have increased their GDP growth forecast for three consecutive months.
- Question: What percentage of experts consider the current environment a bad time for investment?
- Answer: Seventy percent of the experts warn that the current situation is not a good time for investment.
