Background on Fitch and its Relevance
Fitch Ratings is a leading global rating agency that provides credit opinions and research on various entities, including sovereign governments. Their assessments significantly influence investor decisions and are widely respected in the financial world.
In this context, Todd Martinez, Fitch’s Latin America Sovereigns analyst, recently shared his insights on Mexico’s economic outlook during the Credit Outlook 2026 conference.
Fitch’s Perspective on Mexico’s Economy
Less Concerned, but No More Favorable Outlook for 2026
According to Martinez, Fitch is less concerned about Mexico’s economy compared to the previous year. However, they do not anticipate a more favorable scenario for 2026.
“We do not expect Mexico’s economy to break its history of low growth that has characterized it for so long,” Martinez explained. “The T-MEC could enter a zombie mode, even if it remains intact, meaning the agreement survives but needs annual renewal.”
Economic Performance in 2025
Fitch’s analyst noted that Mexico’s economy advanced by 0.4% to 0.5% throughout 2025, describing it as “better than expected” given the peak of uncertainty in April. However, this does not signify a recessionary year.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will release its preliminary PIB estimate for the entire year 2025 on Friday. The final PIB data for Mexico will be available on February 23.
Export Growth and Other Strengths
Martinez highlighted the 8% growth achieved by Mexican exports last year as “a significant accomplishment amidst so much trade uncertainty.”
He also emphasized that Mexico’s other strengths, such as solid external finances and local market resilience, remain intact.
However, Fitch’s outlook for 2026 includes caution regarding the potential application of discretionary tariff measures by the United States.
“We do not put much faith in a T-MEC scenario that would genuinely foster nearshoring potential for Mexico,” Martinez stated.
Mexico’s Credit Rating with Fitch
Fitch is the agency where Mexico holds its lowest rating, just above the Investment Grade level of “BBB-/Stable Outlook.”
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Fitch Ratings? Fitch Ratings is a global credit rating agency that assesses the creditworthiness of various entities, including governments.
- What is Todd Martinez’s role at Fitch? Todd Martinez is the Latin America Sovereigns analyst at Fitch Ratings.
- What is the current outlook for Mexico’s economy according to Fitch? Fitch is less concerned about Mexico’s economy compared to the previous year, but they do not anticipate a more favorable scenario for 2026.
- What was Mexico’s economic performance in 2025 according to Fitch? Mexico’s economy advanced by 0.4% to 0.5% throughout 2025, which was better than expected given the peak of uncertainty in April.
- What are Mexico’s other strengths according to Fitch? Mexico’s other strengths include solid external finances and local market resilience.
- What is Fitch’s caution regarding the US tariff measures? Fitch is cautious about potential discretionary tariff measures that the United States might apply, which could impact Mexico’s nearshoring potential.
- What is Mexico’s credit rating with Fitch? Mexico holds its lowest rating just above the Investment Grade level of “BBB-/Stable Outlook” with Fitch.
