Overview of the Market Consensus
The market’s consensus on Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2025 remains unchanged at 0.5%, according to a survey conducted by Citi, marking the second consecutive quincena with no changes.
Government and International Institutions’ Projections
The current federal government projection stands at 1%, which aligns with the revised forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This growth rate was also the average of the 38 experts surveyed by Citi at the beginning of the year.
Pessimistic Forecasts
Only two of the 38 experts consulted, Scotiabank Mexico and Valores Mexicanos Casa de Bolsa (Valmex), anticipate a negative GDP performance, estimating a contraction of 0.1%. This is a decrease from the peak of 12 experts predicting contraction in Citi’s May 20 survey, with both adjusting their expectations downwards from -0.5% (Scotiabank) and -0.3% (Valmex).
Optimistic Forecasts
The remaining 36 experts have projected growth rates ranging from 0.1% to 0.8%. Notably, none of the 38 interviewed experts anticipate a growth rate of 1%, as projected by the federal government and IMF.
Bankaool holds the highest growth expectation for Mexico’s economy in 2025, projecting an advance of 0.8%.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current market consensus on Mexico’s GDP growth for 2025? The market consensus remains at 0.5% growth, as per the Citi survey.
- How do government and international institutions’ projections compare to the market consensus? The federal government projects 1% growth, which aligns with the IMF’s revised forecast. Neither matches the market consensus.
- How many experts predict a negative GDP performance in 2025? Only two of the 38 experts, Scotiabank Mexico and Valmex, anticipate a contraction of 0.1%.
- What is the highest growth expectation for Mexico’s economy in 2025 among the experts surveyed? Bankaool projects an advance of 0.8%.
