Introduction
The market consensus maintains its GDP growth forecast for Mexico at 0.5% for this year, according to a survey conducted by Citi. This projection contrasts with the federal government’s updated estimate of 1%, which is the midpoint of the range estimated in the 2026 Criterios Generales de Política Económica (CGPE), between 0.5% and 1.5%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also anticipates a growth rate of 1%, following three consecutive downward adjustments from their initial projection of 1.4% in January.
GDP Growth Expectations
Only two experts out of the 38 surveyed, from Scotiabank México and Valores Mexicanos Casa de Bolsa (Valmex), expect a negative GDP growth of 0.1% and -0.3%, respectively. The remaining 36 experts project growth between 0.1% and 0.8%. Notably, Bankaool has the highest growth expectation at 0.8%.
Inflation Projections
Experts project that annual inflation will end at 3.99%, slightly below the 4% expected in the previous quarter and marking two consecutive quarters of downward adjustments. Banco Base anticipates a fluctuation of 4.26% in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), while nine experts project inflation above 4%. Vector expects an inflation rate of 3%, the lowest among all, suggesting it’s the only one anticipating Mexico’s central bank objective of 3% for this year.
Monetary Policy
According to the survey results, the market consensus suggests that the Bank of Mexico could apply two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each, leaving the rate at 7% by year-end. This follows a scenario where the expected GDP growth for 2026 is 1.3%, down from the previous quarter’s 1.4%. Actinver predicts the highest growth at 1.9%, while BNP Paribas expects the lowest at 0.5%. Only seven experts anticipate a growth rate similar to the IMF’s 1.5% projection.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current market consensus for Mexico’s GDP growth in 2025? The market consensus maintains a forecast of 0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in 2025, according to the Citi survey.
- How does this compare to the federal government’s projection? The federal government projects a 1% GDP growth rate, which is the midpoint of their estimated range between 0.5% and 1.5%.
- What do experts predict about inflation for 2025? Experts project that annual inflation will end at 3.99% for 2025.
- What are the expectations for monetary policy adjustments? The market consensus suggests that the Bank of Mexico could apply two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each, leaving the rate at 7% by year-end.
