Background on the Relevance of the Experts
The private sector experts mentioned in this article are crucial as they provide insights into Mexico’s economic prospects. These experts regularly collaborate with the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and are well-regarded for their knowledge and understanding of the country’s economic landscape. Their opinions are essential as they help shape policy discussions and influence investor confidence.
Updated Growth Expectations
According to the latest survey conducted by Banxico, private sector experts now expect Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to be 1.25% for 2026. This is an adjustment from their previous forecast of 1.21% on December 15 and lower than the 1.31% projected in November.
This new expectation falls below the projection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 1.5% and is also lower than the range estimated by Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance, which stands between 1.8% and 2.8%. This range underpins the economic assumptions in Mexico’s 2026 Economic Package.
Inflation Forecast
Despite the revised GDP growth expectations, private sector experts predict that inflation will vary by 3.95% by the end of the year, according to survey results.
This forecast suggests that experts do not anticipate the Bank of Mexico’s target inflation rate of 3% in the third quarter will be met. Furthermore, they expect that 2026 will mark the seventh consecutive year with inflation outside the target range.
Banxico’s Monetary Policy Stance
In line with the survey results, Banxico’s Junta de Gobierno will continue its cycle of interest rate reductions, initiated in March 2024, leaving the rate at 6.49%.
Private Sector Experts’ Outlook on Investing in Mexico
Out of 41 surveyed experts, 72% believe that the current economic situation is no better than a year ago, and 20% anticipate worsening business conditions.
Moreover, 48% of respondents warn that the current climate is not favorable for investment, while only 3% consider it a good time to invest.
Principal Challenges for Doing Business in Mexico
The survey also highlights the primary obstacles for conducting business in Mexico. The most frequently cited issue is the lack of rule of law, with 25% of respondents mentioning it.
- Crime: 24% of responses
- Corruption: 18% of responses (an increase from 15% in January of the previous year)
