Background on Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes and His Role
Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes is the head of the Economic Planning Unit within Mexico’s Ministry of Finance, known as the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP). His expertise and position make his statements on the Mexican economy highly relevant and influential.
Mariscal Paredes’ Statement on Household Savings
During an event organized by the Council of Americas, Mariscal Paredes asserted that Mexican households possess sufficient savings to cope with a potential recession, should one occur.
Growth in Household Savings
Mariscal Paredes highlighted that Mexican household savings have been increasing steadily, surpassing previous trends. He emphasized that even in the event of a recession, Mexican households currently have ample savings and strong financial standing to handle such a situation.
The growth in savings, according to Mariscal Paredes, is attributed to salary increases observed over recent years alongside labor market stability.
Mexico Not in a Recession
Mariscal Paredes clarified that Mexico is not currently in a recession, as it does not meet the three crucial factors that define one:
- Duration
- Profundity
- Generalization across various sectors and economic indicators
He pointed out that for a recession to be declared, economic contractions must affect multiple sectors and indicators. Currently, only 22 out of 32 sectors are experiencing contractions.
Economic Growth Projections for 2023
The SHCP anticipates economic growth between 1.5% and 2.3% for 2023, which has been deemed quite optimistic given the prevailing uncertainty and market volatility.
While the SHCP does not foresee a recession in its base scenario for 2023, other organizations have revised their growth expectations downward for Mexico. For instance, the World Bank predicts zero growth this year, whereas the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 0.3% contraction.
Contextualizing Mexico’s Economic Landscape
Mariscal Paredes acknowledged the complex economic environment, stating that although Mexico has structural strengths, it remains vulnerable to global developments.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Is Mexico currently in a recession? A: No, Mexico is not in a recession as it does not meet the three critical factors that define one.
- Q: What are the factors determining a recession? A: Duration, profundity, and generalization across various sectors and economic indicators.
- Q: What is the SHCP’s growth projection for 2023? A: The SHCP projects economic growth between 1.5% and 2.3% for 2023.
- Q: How do international organizations view Mexico’s growth prospects? A: Some organizations, like the World Bank and IMF, have revised their growth expectations downward for Mexico.
