Background on the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF)
The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) is a prominent organization in Mexico, comprising top financial executives. It plays a crucial role in monitoring and analyzing the country’s economic performance, providing valuable insights through its advance indicators. These indicators are widely respected and serve as a barometer for the health of Mexico’s economy.
October 2025 Economic Performance
According to the advance indicators released by IMEF for October 2025, Mexico moderated its economic contraction. The IMEF Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indicators both showed improvements, albeit of varying magnitudes.
IMEF Manufacturing Indicator
The IMEF Manufacturing Indicator for October 2025 saw an increase in the general index from 46.0 to 47.2 points, a rise of 1.2 units compared to September. Despite this advance, the indicator remains in contraction territory for the nineteenth consecutive month, indicating a still partial recovery of the manufacturing sector.
IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator
The IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator for October 2025 suggests an improvement in the general index, which rose from 49.1 to 50.4 points, surpassing the expansion threshold and potentially marking a turning point in the trajectory of the non-manufacturing sector.
The IMEF Indicator ranges from 0 to 100 points, with the 50-point threshold representing the boundary between economic expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50).
However, in both cases, the trend-cycle remains below 50 points, indicating that recent advances in the final quarter of 2025 have yet to solidify a substantial shift in economic dynamics.
US Economy and IMEF’s Perspective
In its analysis of the economic climate and prospects, IMEF highlighted that various US indicators show moderate economic expansion. The US unemployment rate has slightly increased but remains low at 4.3%, while inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains high. Moreover, uncertainty about economic prospects persists.
Given these factors, the Federal Reserve has been vigilant regarding risks on both sides of its dual mandate. It decided to lower the reference rate by 25 basis points to 4% in its October 29 decision due to an increased risk of job losses in recent months.
IMEF Committee Discussion
During the IMEF Indicator Committee discussion, there was no unanimity in anticipating another 25 basis point reduction in the final decision scheduled for December 10.
Mexican Economy Indicators
Recent Mexican economic activity indicators confirm the Committee’s earlier conclusion that the national economy faces significant weakness. This was reinforced by the recent publication of the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP, which reported a 0.3% decrease in Q3 2025 at a quarterly rate and a 0.2% annual decline with original data.
Leading analysts, including members of this Committee, agree that the GDP expansion for this year will likely be between 0.5% and 0.7%. This outlook is primarily due to persistent stagnation in industrial and manufacturing activities, along with private investment that has been contracting monthly for 11 consecutive months.
Key Questions and Answers
- Who is the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF)? The IMEF is a prestigious organization in Mexico, consisting of top financial executives. It plays a vital role in monitoring and analyzing the country’s economic performance through its advance indicators.
- What do the October 2025 IMEF indicators show about Mexico’s economy? The IMEF Manufacturing Indicator showed a slight improvement, while the Non-Manufacturing Indicator suggested a more robust recovery. However, both indicators remain below the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing contraction.
- How does the US economy influence IMEF’s perspective on Mexico? The IMEF considers various US economic indicators, which show moderate expansion. Factors like low but rising unemployment and high inflation in the US, along with persistent economic uncertainty, inform IMEF’s analysis of Mexico’s economy.
- What is the outlook for Mexico’s GDP growth in 2025? Leading analysts predict a GDP expansion of between 0.5% and 0.7% for 2025, primarily due to stagnant industrial and manufacturing activities and ongoing private investment contraction.
