Introduction to Marcos Carías and Coface
Marcos Carías, the Chief Economist for North America at Coface—a global leader in credit insurance and risk management—has highlighted the importance of Mexico’s geographical proximity to the United States amidst a period of turbulence and transition. Coface, with over 75 years of experience, supports the growth of more than 100,000 companies across 200 markets. In 2023, Coface employed 4,970 people and reported a revenue of 1,868 million euros.
Mexico’s Challenges
Carías identified two significant challenges facing Mexico: redefining its relationship with the United States through the renegotiation of the T-MEC and addressing domestic issues, including ensuring security and infrastructure.
Coordination with Canada
Regarding Canada, Carías suggested that Mexico and Canada should either form a united front or at least coordinate their strategies for the T-MEC renegotiation. Although the United States is Mexico’s primary trading partner, Canada remains a crucial partner.
Foreign Investment
Carías acknowledged that foreign investment in Mexico has stalled, but it hasn’t left. Multinational company investors consider long-term prospects and geopolitical factors, which have once again become relevant.
Government Relations
The economist noted an improvement in relations with the government of Claudia Sheinbaum compared to her predecessor, citing greater openness and more competent officials.
Security and Infrastructure
Carías emphasized that Mexico needs to demonstrate its ability to deploy infrastructure and maintain control over its territory to ensure security. He believes the government is buying time, relying on nearshoring for growth.
Opportunities and Recommendations
Carías advised that if nearshoring isn’t unlocked, a tax reform would be necessary. He urged the government to take advantage of its current political leverage, similar to the judicial reform.
Economic Impact
Despite threats from Trump and tariff implementation, Carías stated that the impact on Mexico’s economy wasn’t as severe in the first half of the year. He forecasts a 0.5% growth rate for 2025 and 1.5% for the following year, though Mexico’s growth potential should be around 2% based on its profile.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Carías predicted that inflation would close the year around 4%, with the central bank likely to continue lowering interest rates. He advised monitoring tariff implementation’s effects on the economy and acknowledged the Banco de México’s autonomy.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are Mexico’s main challenges? Mexico faces redefining its relationship with the U.S. through T-MEC renegotiation and addressing domestic issues like security and infrastructure.
- How has foreign investment in Mexico been affected? Foreign investment has stalled, but it hasn’t left due to long-term considerations by multinational investors.
- What is the current state of Mexico’s economy? The economic impact from Trump’s threats hasn’t been as severe as expected, with a projected growth rate of 0.5% for 2025 and 1.5% for the following year.
- What is Carías’ recommendation for tax reform? If nearshoring doesn’t materialize, Carías suggests implementing a tax reform, taking advantage of the government’s current political leverage.
