Overview of Mexico’s Economic Performance
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), Mexico’s economic activity reported zero growth in March 2023 amid a climate of uncertainty. The Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) showed a 0% monthly variation, with a slight contraction of 0.2% when compared to the previous month.
Key Sectors and Their Performance:
- Secondary Sector: The secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and mining, experienced stagnation in March.
- Tertiary Sector: The services sector saw a monthly decline of 0.1%.
Gabriela Siller, the director of Economic Analysis at Banco Base, commented on these findings:
“Considering the available data from the first quarter, the GDP showed a moderate contraction of 0.04%,” Siller stated.
Annual Comparison and Global Impact:
In comparison to the previous year, Mexico’s economic growth for the first quarter stood at 0.53%. The country has displayed signs of weakness since last year, which have intensified alongside the threats and tariff impositions by the U.S. government under Donald Trump.
This situation has led to a downward revision in Mexico’s growth expectations for 2023, with warnings of a possible economic recession.
Divergent Projections from Institutions
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its growth projection for Mexico downward, estimating a contraction of 0.5%.
This outlook contrasts with the Mexican government’s projection under President Claudia Sheinbaum. Earlier this month, the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit, led by Edgar Amador Zamora, adjusted its growth projection from 1.5% to 2.3%, a view considered overly optimistic given the current uncertainty.
