Introduction to the Mexican Economy and Key Indicators
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) in Mexico recently reported a slight improvement in the country’s economy, as per the Cyclical Indicators System. This news comes after concerns of an impending recession were alleviated.
Who is Julio Santaella and Why is He Relevant?
Julio Santaella, the former president of Inegi, shared this positive outlook on social media. His expertise and experience in Mexico’s statistical analysis lend credibility to these findings.
Understanding the Cyclical Indicators System
The Cyclical Indicators System focuses on growth and aims to predict future economic improvements despite the current economic weaknesses in Mexico.
The Indicador Adelantado: A Closer Look
The Advance Indicator, which aims to reflect turning points in the Coincident Indicator, reached 100 points in June. This places it on its long-term trend line.
- The Advance Indicator increased by 0.16 points compared to May, marking its third consecutive month of growth.
- Out of six components, only two showed growth in June: the Mexican Stock Exchange Index and the Standard & Poor’s Index, with increases of 0.14 points and 0.07 points, respectively.
- The Interbank Interest Rate component experienced the most significant decline, dropping by 0.25 points compared to May.
The Coincident Indicator: Current State of the Economy
The Coincident Indicator, which reflects the overall state of the economy, fell 0.4 points to 99.6 points in May, below its long-term trend.
- Three components of the Coincident Indicator showed declines, while three others experienced growth. However, these advances could not offset the overall downward trend.
The Permanent Workers Insured in the IMSS component had the most substantial decrease, falling by 0.09 points in May.
Conversely, the Urban Unemployment Rate component showed the most significant monthly growth in May, increasing by 0.14 points.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the Cyclical Indicators? The Cyclical Indicators System, developed by Inegi, focuses on growth and aims to predict future economic improvements in Mexico.
- What does the Advance Indicator show? The Advance Indicator reached 100 points in June, indicating a slight economic improvement and placing it on its long-term trend line.
- Which components of the Advance Indicator showed growth in June? Only the Mexican Stock Exchange Index and the Standard & Poor’s Index components demonstrated growth in June.
- What happened to the Coincident Indicator in May? The Coincident Indicator fell 0.4 points to 99.6 points in May, below its long-term trend.
- Which components of the Coincident Indicator experienced declines in May? The Permanent Workers Insured in the IMSS component had the most substantial decrease, falling by 0.09 points.
- What component of the Coincident Indicator showed significant growth in May? The Urban Unemployment Rate component experienced the most substantial monthly growth in May, increasing by 0.14 points.
