Background on the Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE)
The Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) is a Mexican economic indicator that provides timely updates on the country’s economic performance. It is issued by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and is closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers.
IOAE Forecasts 0.2% Monthly Growth for December 2025
According to the IOAE, Mexico’s economy is projected to grow by a mere 0.2% in December 2025, marking a slight acceleration from the estimated 0.1% growth in November.
Historical Context and Sectoral Breakdown
This forecast represents the best December performance since 2023, when the economy grew by 0.4% monthly. In contrast, 2024 saw a contraction of 0.9%.
- Tertiary Sector: The services sector expanded by 0.2% in December, contributing significantly to the overall growth.
- Secondary Sector: Industries, which fall under the secondary sector, grew by 0.1% during the same period.
On an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.3% in December, according to the IOAE.
Gabriela Siller’s Analysis
Gabriela Siller, the Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base, commented on these findings:
“If confirmed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have shown a quarterly increase of 0.97% and an annual growth rate of 1.36% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Consequently, the GDP would have grown by 0.65% throughout 2025.”
Potential Adjustments and Expectations
The IOAE’s projections may change with the release of the Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) on January 23. Additionally, the preliminary PIB estimate will be disclosed on January 30.
Adjusted Growth Expectations
Throughout 2025, Mexico’s economy displayed signs of cooling, prompting a downward revision in growth expectations—even by the federal government.
- Initial Estimates: The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) initially projected a growth range of 1.5% to 2.3% for 2025.
- Revised Estimates: In the 2026 Economic Package, the SHCP lowered the growth range to between 0.5% and 1.5%.
Moreover, the latest Citi Encuesta de Expectativas predicted a meager 0.4% growth for 2025, with Multiva estimating 0.6% and Scotiabank forecasting zero growth.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the IOAE? The Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) is a Mexican economic indicator that offers timely updates on the country’s economic performance, issued by INEGI.
- What growth rate is projected for December 2025? The IOAE forecasts a 0.2% monthly growth rate for December 2025.
- How does this growth compare to previous years? This projected growth is better than December 2023 (0.4% monthly) but worse than the contraction experienced in 2024 (-0.9%).
- What are the sectoral contributions to this growth? The tertiary sector (services) contributed 0.2% growth, while the secondary sector (industries) added 0.1%.
- How might these projections change? The IOAE’s forecast could be adjusted with the release of the IGAE and the preliminary PIB estimate.
- How have growth expectations evolved? Initial estimates by the SHCP were between 1.5% and 2.3%, but these were later revised down to a range of 0.5% to 1.5%. Various private sector forecasts also indicate slower growth or stagnation.
