Overview and Key Figures
The average growth of Mexico’s economy throughout 2025 was estimated at 0.7% in real terms, adjusted for seasonality, according to the preliminary Productivity Internal Bruto (GDP) estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
This estimate surpassed the Bloomberg consensus, which was at 0.6%. The performance for all of 2025 indicates a fourth consecutive year of deceleration since 2021, when the activity rebounded by 5% following the pandemic’s slump.
Moreover, as analysts had forecasted, the 2025 economic performance shows a significant gap from the potential growth rate of 2% and the historical average growth between 2000 and 2018, which was 1.8%.
Weak Rebound in Q4
According to Inegi’s preliminary estimate, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw an advance of 0.8% compared to the third quarter’s performance.
The period from July to September experienced a 0.3% contraction in quarterly economic activity, raising concerns about the possibility of two consecutive negative quarters, typically identified as a recession.
In the breakdown of preliminary information, Inegi shows that in the quarterly record, tertiary activities (services and commerce) as well as secondary activities (industry, mining, and construction) had the most dynamic performance at 0.9%.
From London, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief economist Andrés Abadía explained that in Q4 of the previous year, there was a general improvement in industry and services, offsetting the renewed weakness in the volatile agricultural sector. This allowed for a complete reversal of the third quarter’s contraction.
Meanwhile, primary activities in agriculture, fishing, and livestock experienced a 2.7% contraction.
Diagnosis: Weakness and Stagnation
Economists at Banamex consider that the economy maintains “weak growth,” partly explained by internal and external uncertainty factors as well as reduced public spending.
They anticipate that in 2026, the economic activity recovery will continue, albeit at a moderate pace with a 1.6% GDP growth rate, accumulating three years below the historical average of the 2000-2018 period.
Gabriela Siller, Banco Base’s economic analysis director, stated that “there was no recession, but the evident economic stagnation is clear with a 0.7% growth.”
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ strategist offers a similar perspective: “it’s not a robust recovery, but rather limited growth.”
Key Questions and Answers
- What was Mexico’s average economic growth in 2025? The preliminary estimate by Inegi shows an average growth of 0.7% in real terms for Mexico’s economy during 2025.
- How does this growth compare to Bloomberg’s consensus? The 0.7% estimate surpassed the Bloomberg consensus of 0.6%.
- What factors contributed to the weak growth? Internal and external uncertainty factors, along with reduced public spending, have contributed to Mexico’s weak economic growth.
- What was the performance in Q4 2025? The fourth quarter of 2025 saw an advance of 0.8% compared to the third quarter, with improvements in industry and services offsetting agricultural sector weakness.
- What is the outlook for 2026? Economists anticipate a continued recovery in economic activity for 2026, but at a moderate pace with a projected 1.6% GDP growth rate.
