Experts from the Private Sector Adjust Growth Expectations for Mexico’s GDP
Experts from the private sector have adjusted their growth expectations for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year to 0.13%, according to the results of a survey conducted by Banco de México (Banxico).
This forecast represents an upward adjustment from the previous month’s prediction of 0.08%, breaking a six-month trend of consecutive cuts.
Inflation Expectations Also Increased
According to the survey results, experts also raised their expectations for inflation to 4.7%, which is the highest prediction since September 2024 and marks three consecutive months of increases.
GDP Growth Projection for Next Year
For next year, experts anticipate a GDP growth rate of 1.31%. This expectation reflects the fifth consecutive monthly cut from the 1.75% they had expected in January of this year. The forecast remains the lowest since July of last year, when they projected a growth rate of 2.06%.
Inflation Forecast for 2026
Regarding the inflation forecast for 2026, experts predict a variation of 3.63%, indicating another consecutive month of rising predictions.
Key Challenges to Economic Growth
The surveyed experts highlighted several factors that could hinder economic growth, including public insecurity (18% of responses), trade policy (including the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement or T-MEC, as well as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP, which accounted for 15% of mentions), and international political instability (9% of responses).
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the new GDP growth forecast for Mexico this year? Experts from the private sector have adjusted their growth expectations for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year to 0.13%, up from the previous month’s prediction of 0.08%.
- How have inflation expectations changed? Inflation expectations have increased to 4.7%, marking the highest prediction since September 2024 and three consecutive months of increases.
- What is the GDP growth projection for next year? Experts anticipate a GDP growth rate of 1.31% for next year, which reflects five consecutive monthly cuts from the 1.75% they expected in January of this year.
- What are the key challenges to Mexico’s economic growth? Experts have identified public insecurity, trade policy (including the T-MEC and CPTPP agreements), and international political instability as significant obstacles to economic growth.
