Economic Performance and Key Contributors
The Mexican economy achieved a growth rate of 1.2% annually from the second quarter of 2024 to the same period this year, according to the preliminary estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with seasonally adjusted figures developed by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
If this projection holds true in the final GDP data release on August 20th, it will mark two consecutive quarters of growth following the 0.7% annual growth in the first quarter of 2025. The market had anticipated a slightly better performance at 0.8%, so this outcome is considered positive.
Sectoral Performance
- Primary sector: Agriculture and livestock led the way with a 4.5% growth, making it the most dynamic sector in the annual review.
- Tertiary sector: Services and commerce followed closely with a 1.7% growth.
- Secondary sector: Industrial activities, including manufacturing, continued to struggle with a 0.2% decline over the same period.
Expert Analysis and Market Reactions
From London, senior economist for Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Andrés Abadía, acknowledged the robust impulse in the Mexican economy amidst challenges.
The second quarter offered a brief respite with solid positive contributions due to the delay of trade tensions and stable inflation alongside falling interest rates, contributing to recovery.
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Meanwhile, Gabriela Siller, the director of economic analysis at Banco Base, recognized that the growth observed in the first half of 2024 has mitigated the risk of economic recession, as Mexico has found momentum through exports of products not subject to US tariffs.
Industry Reverses Trimesterly Decline
According to the preliminary data, Mexico’s GDP grew by 0.7% between April and June compared to the previous trimester, which was a mere 0.2%.
The Inegi’s detailed information shows that secondary activities, led by industry and manufacturing, had the most dynamic performance of the period with an advance of 0.8%.
Economist Andrés Abadía from Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that this growth fully offset the previous trimester’s decline, albeit with moderate growth.
He also pointed out that uncertainty surrounding US trade policy continues to hamper the sector’s performance.
Upward Bias in Annual Expectation
Analysts from Banamex and Goldman Sachs have warned that the preliminary GDP estimation for Q2 casts an upward bias on their forecasts for the overall economic activity throughout the year.
Banamex economists, led by Iván Arias, maintain a 0.4% growth prediction for the entirety of 2025. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, believes it could reach a 0.7% advance.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Mexican economy’s growth rate for Q2 2024? The preliminary GDP estimation shows a 1.2% annual growth rate for Mexico’s economy from the second quarter of 2024 to the same period this year.
- Which sectors contributed most to the growth? The primary sector, particularly agriculture and livestock, led with a 4.5% growth rate. The tertiary sector, including services and commerce, followed with a 1.7% growth.
- What challenges does the Mexican economy still face? Despite positive growth, uncertainty persists regarding US trade policies, which continue to hamper industrial activities.
- How do experts view the annual growth prospects? Analysts from Banamex and Goldman Sachs have noted an upward bias in their annual growth forecasts for the Mexican economy, with predictions ranging from 0.4% to 0.7%.
