Mexico’s Inflation Accelerates in Early 2026; Reaches 3.69% in First Half of January

Introduction to Inflation Trends in Mexico

According to a report by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), consumer inflation in Mexico began to accelerate at the start of 2026. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) showed a quinzenal advance of 0.31%, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 3.69% during the first half of January.

Inflation Acceleration and Comparison

This acceleration follows the previous quinzena of 2025, where inflation was recorded at 3.66%. Despite this increase, the inflation rate remains within the Banco de México’s (Banxico) target range of 3% ±1 percentage point.

Market expectations had anticipated a more significant inflation acceleration at the beginning of 2026, with Reuters’ survey projecting a 3.86% price increase for January. However, the new year brought not only a minimum wage hike but also an update to the IEPS on certain products, such as soft drinks and tobacco, causing their prices to rise.

Factors Driving Inflation

Inegi’s report highlights that the primary drivers of inflation in the first half of 2026 were the prices of services and goods, components of the underlying inflation, which excludes more volatile items from its calculations.

• Underlying Inflation: The underlying inflation rate reached 4.47% in the first half of January, driven by a 4.51% increase in goods (including food and tobacco) and a 4.44% rise in services.
• Non-underlying Inflation: The annual price increase was 1.43% in this category.

Specifically, the prices of agricultural products rose by 1.39%, while energy and government-authorized tariffs increased by 1.47%.

Key Products with Price Changes

Products with Rising Prices

The new year introduced higher prices for several products, most notably affecting consumers through the quinzenal incident rate:

1. Cigarettes: 12.22%
2. Bottled soft drinks: 3.97%
3. Street food vendors (loncherías, fondas, torterías, taquerías): 0.75%
4. Owner-occupied housing: 0.18%
5. Tomatoes: 3.45%
6. Electricity: 0.99%
7. Restaurants and similar services: 0.49%
8. Lemons: 15.21%
9. Domestic help: 1.28%
10. Hair care products: 1.75%

Products with Falling Prices

Some products offered relief to consumers’ budgets due to price decreases in the first half of 2026:

1. Air travel: -27.30%
2. Eggs: -3.95%
3. Residential LP gas: -1.83%
4. Taxis: -1.57%
5. Packaged tourism services: -7.52%
6. Serrano chili peppers: -10.56%
7. Detergents: -0.81%
8. Lettuce and iceberg lettuce: -5.97%
9. Onions: -3.29%
10. Other vegetables and legumes: -2.61%

Key Questions and Answers

• Q: What is the current inflation rate in Mexico? A: The inflation rate in Mexico reached 3.69% in the first half of January 2026.
• Q: How does Mexico’s inflation compare to market expectations? A: Market expectations had anticipated a more significant inflation acceleration, but the actual rate remains within Banxico’s target range.
• Q: What factors are driving inflation in Mexico? A: The primary drivers of inflation are the prices of services and goods, with agricultural products and energy contributing to the increase.
• Q: Which products have experienced price hikes in early 2026? A: Notable price increases were observed in cigarettes, bottled soft drinks, street food, owner-occupied housing, tomatoes, electricity, restaurant services, lemons, domestic help, and hair care products.
• Q: Which products have seen price decreases in early 2026? A: Price decreases were noted in air travel, eggs, residential LP gas, taxis, packaged tourism services, serrano chili peppers, detergents, lettuce, onions, and other vegetables and legumes.