Overview of Global Growth Projections by Moody’s Ratings
Moody’s, a prominent credit rating agency, has revised its growth projections for Mexico and France, both members of the G-20. The new estimates are lower than those made in August and indicate a moderated global growth due to trade uncertainties, with emerging economies showing some dynamism.
Mexico and France Growth Projections
Moody’s now expects Mexico to grow by 1.2% in the upcoming year, down from their previous estimate of 1.7%. For France, the agency anticipates a growth rate of 0.9%, which is also lower than their August projection of 1.2%.
These revised growth estimates for Mexico and France fall below the projected average growth rate of 1.5% for the G-20 countries, as outlined in Moody’s “Global Economic Outlook for 2026 and 2027” report.
Emerging Economies and Global Growth
Half of the G-20 economies are classified as emerging, and their average growth is projected to be 4%. Mexico’s growth rate, according to Moody’s, is expected to be significantly lower than this average.
Among the emerging G-20 economies, India is projected to lead with a growth rate of 6.4%, while Mexico lags behind. This expected performance is linked to higher growth anticipations for the United States and China in 2026.
Revised Growth Expectations for the US and China
Improved Outlook for the US and China
Moody’s has also upwardly revised growth projections for two of the G-20’s top 20 economies: the United States and China. For 2026, the US is expected to grow by 2% this year and 1.8% in the following year, up from their August estimates of 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
Moody’s analysts acknowledge that the US labor market is weakening, but they attribute the upward revision to stable consumer spending and increased investment in artificial intelligence driving robust GDP growth.
The report highlights that the US GDP growth is decelerating, and income growth aligns with a late-cycle economic phase. Meanwhile, China’s growth is supported by exports and government backing, offsetting domestic economic weaknesses.
Despite these positive aspects, Moody’s notes that China’s internal fundamentals remain weak, with uneven consumer spending, limited corporate credit access, and declining fixed asset investments.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Moody’s and why are their projections important? Moody’s is a leading credit rating agency that provides assessments of countries’ economic health. Their growth projections are crucial for investors, policymakers, and the general public to understand potential economic trends.
- Which countries had their growth projections downgraded by Moody’s? Mexico and France both experienced a reduction in their growth expectations for 2026.
- How do the revised growth projections compare to previous estimates and the G-20 average? The new projections for Mexico (1.2%) and France (0.9%) are lower than Moody’s August estimates (1.7% for Mexico and 1.2% for France) and below the projected average growth rate of 1.5% for G-20 countries.
- What factors are driving growth in emerging economies? Emerging economies, like those within the G-20, are expected to show dynamism due to anticipated growth in the US and China in 2026, along with support from exports and government backing.
- Why did Moody’s revise their growth projections upward for the US and China? Despite acknowledging weaknesses in the US labor market, Moody’s revised projections upward for the US and China are attributed to stable consumer spending, increased investment in artificial intelligence, and supportive government policies.
