Background on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCDE)
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCDE) is an international economic organisation comprising 38 member countries, primarily developed nations. Established in 1961, the OCDE aims to build better policies for better lives by sharing economic and social data, research, and policy analysis. Mexico has been a member since 1994, making it one of the first emerging economies in LatAm to join.
Revised Growth Forecast for Mexico
In their latest Interim Report, the OCDE experts revised upwards Mexico’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, an increase from their previous projection of 0.4% in June. This new estimate is still far from the recessionary 1.3% they had predicted in March.
Inflation Projection
Alongside the revised growth forecast, the OCDE also updated its inflation projection for Mexico. They now estimate an annual variation of 4.2%, up from their previous forecast of 3.4%. This adjustment reflects the growing impact of tariffs on Mexico’s economy, though they note that full effects have yet to be felt.
Global Economic Outlook
The OCDE anticipates global economic growth of 3.2% for 2025, up from their June projection of 2.9%. For 2026, they forecast a GDP growth rate of 1.3%, revised upwards from their earlier estimate of 1.1%. Inflation is projected to fluctuate at 3.6% for 2025, up from their June forecast of 3.2%. Both growth and inflation projections remain distant from the respective targets set by central banks.
US Economy’s Impact on Mexico
The OCDE report highlights that the United States, which accounts for over 80% of Mexico’s exports, is experiencing a 1.8% growth rate in 2025—up from their June estimate of 1.6%. Mexico has become the leading supplier to the US this year, influencing its own economic performance.
Global Economic Challenges
The OCDE emphasizes the need for international cooperation in the global trading system to ensure more predictable trade policies. They warn of significant risks to economic prospects, including potential further tariff increases, rising inflationary pressures, heightened fiscal concerns, or substantial volatility in financial markets.
China’s Economic Slowdown
The OCDE anticipates China’s economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025, up from their June estimate of 4.7%. For 2026, they project a growth rate of 4.4%, slightly higher than their previous forecast of 4.3%. Despite these projections, China’s growth rates are expected to fall short of last year’s 5.5% PIB, attributed to export concentration, import tariffs, and reduced fiscal support for industries.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the OCDE? The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCDE) is an international organisation that promotes policies to improve the economic and social well-being of people around the globe.
- Why is Mexico’s growth forecast important? Mexico’s GDP growth directly impacts its trade relations, particularly with the United States, which absorbs more than 80% of Mexico’s exports. A stronger Mexican economy benefits both countries and the broader region.
- What are the global economic risks highlighted by the OCDE? The OCDE warns of potential tariff increases, rising inflationary pressures, heightened fiscal concerns, and volatility in financial markets as significant risks to global economic prospects.
- How does the OCDE view China’s economic future? Despite projecting continued growth, the OCDE anticipates China’s economic expansion will slow down from last year’s 5.5% PIB growth rate, influenced by export concentration, import tariffs, and reduced fiscal support for industries.
