Who is Ramsés Pech and Why is He Relevant?
Ramsés Pech, an economy and energy specialist, has warned that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will absorb the increase in the Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS) for regular gasoline in 2026. His expertise in Mexico’s energy sector makes his insights valuable for understanding the implications of this potential change.
Understanding the IEPS Update
The Mexican Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) recently announced an update to the IEPS quotas for fuels, adjusted annually based on annual inflation. The regular gasoline (Magna) IEPS quota increased from 6.46 pesos per liter in 2025 to 6.70 pesos starting January 1, 2026—a 24-cent increase.
Pemex’s Role in Maintaining Gasoline Prices
According to Pech, the gasoline price will not rise in January due to a pact with gas station owners to keep the fuel price below 24 pesos per liter. Pemex, responsible for distributing and delivering both domestically produced and imported fuels to gas stations, would absorb the IEPS increase by lowering the selling price at distribution terminals.
Impact on Pemex Finances
Pech predicts that the federal government might not provide fiscal incentives at the beginning of 2026, resulting in higher public finance gains as the government collects 100% of the IEPS for gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, Pemex would absorb the IEPS increase by reducing the gasoline selling price at distribution terminals.
Terminal Pricing Adjustments
To maintain gasoline prices at the current average of 23.60 pesos per liter starting January 1, 2026, Pemex’s terminal selling price would need to decrease from 11.37 pesos per liter to 11.12 pesos, Pech calculates.
IEPS Update on Other Fuels
The Premium gasoline IEPS quota will rise from 5.45 pesos to 5.66 pesos per liter starting January 1, 2025—a 21-cent increase. Diesel’s IEPS quota will go from 7.09 pesos to 7.36 pesos—a 27-cent increase.
Government Revenue and Historical Context
The SHCP aims to collect 473,279 million pesos through the IEPS on fuels for 2026, updated by inflation. Although IEPS quotas for fuels will increase, the LIF 2026 law shows a 6.7% reduction compared to expected revenue from this tax in the current year.
No Impact on Gasoline Stabilization Strategy
The SHCP clarified that the IEPS quota update will not affect the National Strategy for Stabilizing Gasoline Prices, the agreement between the government and gas station owners to keep Magna gasoline prices below 24 pesos per liter.
Pact Details
This pact, effective since March 1, 2025, was coordinated among the Energy, Finance, Environment and Natural Resources Secretariats, Pemex, the National Energy Commission, the Federal Consumer Procurator’s Office, and other public entities.
Key Questions and Answers
- Will gasoline prices increase in January 2026? No, according to Pech and the government’s pact with gas station owners, prices will remain below 24 pesos per liter.
- How will Pemex absorb the IEPS increase? By reducing the selling price of gasoline at distribution terminals.
- What is the expected impact on Pemex finances? The government might not provide fiscal incentives, leading to higher public finance gains as the government collects 100% of the IEPS for gasoline and diesel.
- How will other fuels’ prices be affected? Premium gasoline and diesel prices will increase due to higher IEPS quotas.
- What is the government’s revenue goal through IEPS in 2026? The SHCP aims to collect 473,279 million pesos through the IEPS on fuels for 2026.
- Will the gasoline stabilization strategy be affected by the IEPS update? No, according to the SHCP; the pact between the government and gas station owners will continue to keep Magna gasoline prices below 24 pesos per liter.
