Background on Claudia Sheinbaum and Her Relevance
Claudia Sheinbaum is the current Head of Government (equivalent to Mayor) of Mexico City, serving since 2018. As the successor to the popular former mayor Marcelo Ebrard, she has been tasked with maintaining and enhancing the city’s progress in various sectors such as infrastructure, public transportation, and social programs. Her administration has been focusing on sustainable development, innovation, and improving the quality of life for Mexico City’s residents.
Economic Growth Projections and Comparison
The Mexico City government, led by Claudia Sheinbaum through the Secretariat of Finance, has projected a GDP growth rate between 1.8% and 2.8% for the upcoming year, as outlined in the General Economic Policy Criteria 2026 presented to Congress in the Economic Package.
According to the economic team of the Secretariat of Finance, the economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in the second year of Sheinbaum’s administration.
This growth projection, proposed by the Secretariat of Finance for the economic activity in 2026, includes an upward adjustment from the initial 1.9% projection they had made in April’s preliminary criteria, which fell within the estimated range of 1.5% to 2.5%. The revised projection is half a percentage point higher than the average market consensus, gathered by Citi’s survey, which stands at 1.4%.
Moreover, these projections are significantly more optimistic compared to the updated forecasts by Banco de México and the Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), both estimating growth at 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.
Expert Opinion on Potential Risks
Pamela Díaz Loubet, the economist for Mexico at BNP Paribas, explained that since these projections are higher than market expectations, there is a risk that they might not be met. In such a case, it could lead to an overestimation of income.
Furthermore, she mentioned that discrepancies in the 2026 deficit projections might also pose a challenge.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected GDP growth rate for the upcoming year according to Sheinbaum’s government? The Mexico City government projects a GDP growth rate between 1.8% and 2.8% for the upcoming year.
- How do these projections compare to market consensus and other institutions’ forecasts? The government’s projection is half a percentage point higher than the average market consensus (1.4%) and significantly more optimistic compared to Banco de México’s 1.1% and FMI’s 1.4% forecasts.
- What are the potential risks associated with these high growth projections? Economist Pamela Díaz Loubet from BNP Paribas highlighted the risk of overestimation of income if these projections are not met, as well as possible challenges arising from discrepancies in the 2026 deficit projections.
