Introduction
The economic policies driven by the U.S. government under Donald Trump, along with ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, have affected Mexico’s economic growth projections for 2025. As a result, the Mexican Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) revised its growth expectations downward.
Revised Growth Projections
In the General Criteria of Economic Policy (CGPE) 2026, the SHCP, led by Édgar Amador Zamora, lowered its growth projection for this year from a range of 1.5% to 2.3% to a range between 0.5% and 1.5%. This revision places the government’s expectation closer to market consensus and projections from other institutions.
- Banco de México (Banxico) estimates 0.6% growth.
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCDE) projects 0.4% growth.
External Factors Affecting Growth
According to Rodrigo Mariscal, head of the Economic Planning Unit at SHCP, the primary reasons for the revised projections are external factors, such as tariffs imposed by the U.S. government.
Although Mexico was among the better-positioned countries in this situation, global uncertainty was generated. Mariscal explained that despite Mexico’s relatively favorable position, the trade tensions negatively impacted economic growth expectations.
Fiscal Consolidation Impact
Another factor affecting the economic projection is the expected fiscal consolidation for 2025. The Mexican government has implemented various public spending cuts, including infrastructure investments. Initially, the Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP) were projected to be 3.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but they were revised to 4.3% in the 2026 Economic Package.
“The 4.3% is on a fiscal consolidation path… There are several factors that may be affecting… Economic growth was lower than expected… However, the most important thing is that we are on the fiscal consolidation path,” said Édgar Amador Zamora, head of SHCP.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What factors affected Mexico’s economic growth projections? A: The primary factors were external elements, such as U.S. tariffs, and fiscal consolidation efforts.
- Q: How did Mexico fare compared to other countries regarding U.S. tariffs? A: Mexico was among the better-positioned countries, but global uncertainty still negatively impacted growth expectations.
- Q: What changes were made to the Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP) projections? A: The RFSP projections were revised from 3.9% of GDP to 4.3% of GDP in the 2026 Economic Package.
