Current Demographic Trends
The global birth map is at a pivotal moment, with population growth slowing down and becoming more concentrated in select countries. While the world’s population will continue to grow, this growth is becoming less significant and more concentrated in a limited number of countries. Meanwhile, others are experiencing rapid aging and sustained declines in birth rates.
This trend is highlighted by the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024 report, which indicates that the global fertility rate reached a historic low of 2.3 births per woman in 2024, just above the replacement level of 2.1. This confirms a global trend where people are choosing to have fewer children.
Leading Countries in Births
Despite this trend, certain countries still lead in birth numbers for 2025 and projections for 2050.
India
According to projections from Our World in Data, India will have the highest number of births globally in 2025, with an estimated 23.1 million. However, this growth is not sustainable; by 2050, the annual birth count is expected to drop to 19 million. Although India will continue to contribute the most global births, its share will decrease; in 2025, India accounts for about 17% of all global births, but this will fall to 14% by mid-century.
China
China is projected to have 8.7 million births in 2025, placing it second. However, China’s demographic decline is among the most pronounced globally due to its low fertility rate. Consequently, China is expected to drop to fourth place by 2050, surpassed by India, Nigeria, and Pakistan.
Nigeria
Nigeria is projected to have 7.6 million births in 2025, with a significant increase expected by 2050, rising to 8.1 million and placing it second in global births.
Stability in the United States
The United States is projected to have 3.7 million births in 2025, ranking eighth globally. This number is expected to slightly increase to 3.8 million by 2050. Despite leading annual births among developed countries, the U.S. volume remains modest. For comparison, India is expected to have more than six times the U.S. births, while Nigeria will double that figure.
Concern in OECD Countries
The decline in births is not limited to Asia or Eastern Europe; OECD countries face a critical situation that threatens the sustainability of their productive and pension systems.
The OECD calculates that the fertility rate should be around 2.1 children per woman to ensure generational replacement, but recent data (2021-2022) shows an average of just 1.43 children per woman.
Among the most critical cases within OECD countries are South Korea (0.72), Spain (1.12), Poland (1.16), and Japan (1.2). In contrast, Israel, Mexico, and France lead in fertility rates within the OECD, with 2.89, 1.91, and 1.66 children per woman, respectively.
Colombia’s Situation
Colombia does not present a reality significantly different from others. Between 2021 and 2024, the country saw a significant drop in births, decreasing by 163,043, from 616,914 to 453,901.
Despite this reduction, Colombia maintains the fourth-highest fertility rate in the OECD at 1.65 children per woman, surpassing Chile (1.17) and Costa Rica (1.33).
However, this scenario raises fiscal and social alarms as Colombia has the ninth-lowest public spending on family benefits within the OECD block at 1.8% of GDP, compared to an average of 2.4%.
According to the OECD, economic uncertainty, high housing costs, and increased female labor force participation are reshaping reproductive decisions. The organization also recommends strengthening work-life balance policies, expanding paternity leave, and improving access to childcare and housing.
Latin America: Below Replacement but with Strong Contrasts
The average fertility rate in Latin America and the Caribbean is 1.8 births per woman, below the replacement level, according to World Bank figures.
However, the region exhibits marked internal differences. Bolivia, Honduras, and Guyana lead the regional list with rates of 2.5, 2.5, and 2.4 children per woman, respectively. Paraguay, Guatemala, and Nicaragua follow closely with rates still above the global average. Colombia ranks in the middle of the regional list with 1.6 children per woman.
